Reality: A Road to Better Market Timing

WD Gann’s Key to Better Market Timing

Besides the great importance of being aligned with the dominant trend when trading or investing, WD Gann proved that there’s also the necessity of discerning a change in those trends (using market timing techniques) as early as possible.

Now, while the absolute top and bottom of a price move is what most newcomers to the markets think is what should be aimed for, a step back and analysis of the statistics will correct the notion that tops and bottoms are what should be the main focus of market timing.

In any time period, there will be an absolute high and low which will occur within that time frame. That is the Top and the Bottom of that market for that time period.

For a Year, which constitutes about 220 trading days, that means if we are trying to target those two single points of the High and the Low randomly, we’d have only 2 chances out of 220 of being correct in our assessments.

The percentage odds of that approach being ‘right-on-the-money’ correct are only .9 %!

Put another way,  we have 99.1% odds of missing the High and the Low for the Year!

And, in the investing field, that means, at least half the time, selling too early to find the top (creating losses) and buying too early looking for the lowest low (also creating losses). That translates into loss for the trader and investor who tries to top and bottom pick at least 50% of the time!

WD Gann and Crude Oil Timing

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by WDGann-Lost-Secrets.com
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‘Hope’ is fictional, Reality is self-defined

Tops and Bottoms to markets ARE Reality and, therefore, define themselves.

Hoping for a price top or bottom before the fact is, by definition, an act of fiction that can eventually lead to Chaos.

Price Tops and Bottoms become ‘self-evident’ by what follows after they’re made.

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Nikkei 225 at short-term turn?

NIKKEI 225 POISED AT IMPORTANT PRICE TRIGGER POINT

This week’s action is subdued due to the US Holiday but, the Nikkei 225 is resting upon an important price trigger point. TO READ MORE, BECOME A MEMBER.

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Nikkei 225 turning point

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The latest upswing in prices that took place over the course of this month (November) have now reached a pause point that will either launch prices still higher in the weeks ahead or, if they break below the blue rectangle on the chart to the left, propel prices downwards for at least a week or more.

Should price spring upwards from this price point, it will likely do so quickly and move past 16000 in short order.

However, should price momentum weaken and drop from here, then, price could easily drop 900 to 1000 points in the course of just a week or two. It’s an exciting possibility in either case as the upwards potential is equal to the downwards one.

The tip-off to an upwards potential (on the daily charts) will be if price can summon the energy to take out the previous high of last Friday.

A downside objective will be highly likely if prices drop below the lows of yesterday. – George

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WD GANN: GOLD & SILVER PRICE ANGLES

IMPORTANT GANN ANGLES IN PLAY

To update ourselves on market price realities of GOLD & SILVER and, at the same time, further distance ourselves from market propaganda let’s pull back to the solid world of mathematics, geometry and WD GANN.

By applying a sense of balance to market prices to separate time periods (Daily and Weekly) we can plot the angles which WD Gann made famous. I’m speaking now of the 45 degree angle applied in a disciplined way to the Gold & Silver markets.

You can view the results in the two charts following for both the Gold and the Silver markets. The results will show that on the daily basis weakness in price persists.

First, the SILVER market which is the weaker of the two at present:

WD GANN and Silver price trends

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by Money-tigers.com
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This market remains below it’s long-term 45 degree price angle and also it’s shorter-term Daily price angle (shown on the chart above).

The bottom line?

Silver remains weak and the pressure is to go still lower in price on just the momentum angle analysis alone.

As for the GOLD market, as you can see below, Gold has also adhered to the downward price pressure as indicated by the declining price angle shown for the daily prices.

WD GANN and GOLD price trends

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by Money-tigers.com
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The longer-term perspective for Gold prices is not as weak as the shorter-term lines indicate.

In fact, we’re about $300 above the critical angle from the 2013 High in Gold.

We’ve hit the support angle long-term four times this year so far, but, to touch it again would require a much larger fall in Gold prices (as mentioned $300 further downwards as of this date.

Gold prices are presently favoring a less steep descent of around $50 every 2-weeks as shown in the chart.

Newcomers can check this website’s archives where you’ll find that I predicted these lower Gold prices some time ago using other techniques (like the Excalibur Method).

I haven’t altered my outlook on the present downtrend for the solid reasons presented by these techniques.– George

US Bonds at Crucial Pivot Point

US BONDS ARE EXTENDED IN TIME & PRICE

The US Bond market is an incredibly long-term and slow-moving market; at least when it comes to major shifts in interest rates.

All the angles have been played to keep interest rates down and, even so, there’s been a slow drift downwards indicating a slight bump upwards in interest rates.

It was just a matter of time before certain Time & Price scenarios came to pass lining us up to an important pivot area of price and time.

That time is between now and the end of this year as we’re at the end of the natural reaction periods on a 6-month basis, but, also for the 1-year trend as well. As we examine the chart below, we see that we’re right on one of the trigger areas (shown with the red horizontal bar below the present market price.

US Bond and interest rate trends

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by Money-tigers.com
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This same scenario is being played out in the Time dimension as well and seeing the convergence of both 6-month reactions and the one-year reactions gives all the more importance to this particular time for US BONDS.

A rebound upwards towards lower interest rates would almost require that those rates go to even lower levels than previously record low levels.

However, a further breakdown in prices from here would take us into familiar territory which we’ve visited only a few years back. The potential of revisiting the ‘familiar’ is actually another reason to place more weight on the downside potential. An Excalibur Line applied to the daily level will help reveal the market’s choice earlier than this longer-term chart alone.

WD Gann recommended using 3 types of chart time periods for most markets: Daily, Weekly and Monthly. By using the monthly and weekly charts, one could maintain better perspective and stay with the major trend. One could then focus in at critical turn moments to catch shifts in trend using the shorter time-period daily charts. – George

China 25 Stock Index Breakout

The China 25 Index Shifts to Overdrive

With so many eyes focused on the runaway US Stock Market, most have ignored that the Chinese Stock Market (as represented by the China 25 Index; stock symbol FXI) has shifted out of neutral and into overdrive with Friday’s close.

The accompanying chart shows the last time that such a trigger (using the Excalibur Method of analysis) was given and what followed.

China25

A new up-trending momentum trigger has been generated for FXI and, is shown by the green horizontal bar at the right top of the chart above.

This would coincide with a money flow shift to Asia. As to where this money flow is coming from, there are enough crises in the West to provide an ample set of clues. But, if I were to take a best guess, I’d say that money is being taken out of treasury bonds and is being repatriated back to China.

If so, then, there will be a tremendous upside potential for the Chinese Stock Market (as well as other investments such as China Real Estate; which, perhaps not so coincidentally is also strongly trending upwards). – George

Copper: Global Economic Slowdown Continues

COPPER:

Prices Indicate That Deflation Continues

A new SELL trigger analysis for the COPPER market was indicated using the Excalibur Method as our guide.

The chart below shows two of these SELL points for the Copper Market. These continued declines further confirm the global economic slowdown and the deflationary environment that is actually at play in the world.

Copper SELL  trigger points using the Excalibur Method of analysis

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by Money-tigers.com
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Watch for lower prices to confirm the new break downwards. If prices rise above $3.45, then, this would indicate that renewed momentum is in play and the end of deflationary prices in Copper may be coming to an end. George

WD Gann Techniques: Still Working to This Day

SHOWING ONE OF WD GANN’S HIDDEN TECHNIQUES AT WORK IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

The chart below illustrates a technique that hasn’t been displayed since WD Gann’s day back in the 1950’s in his personal papers.

crude3

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by Money-tigers.com

There’s a sequence of previous tops and bottoms along with another predicted* for the near future.

This technique demolishes the so-called ‘random-walk’ theory of the markets and is, in my opinion, one of the reasons behind WD Gann’s great trading and investing success over a 50-year period. His successes were rumored to be worth over $50 Million dollars during this time, and, that’s when a million dollars was worth a whole lot more in purchasing power than it is today!

This almost lost technique (and many others) will be available publicly (until Deceimber 15th) to 5 more purchasers before again disappearing from public view.

The two-volume Collection called ‘Rediscovering WD Gann’s Lost Trading Secrets’ opens up WD Gann’s perspective on the markets, price charts and Time & Price Secrets.

A perspective he developed and applied over a half-century of trading.

If you want to be one of the remaining five-individuals world-wide to have access to techniques like the one shown above through this two-volume Collection, contact me HERE. – George

*(Disclaimer: This is a forecast and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results.).