Category Archives: Dow 30 Profit Trends

Stock Market Pivot Time?

Week of Feb. 10th, 2014:

A Potential Pivot Point for the Stock Market

The present retracement in the stock market has reached an important pivot price point.

stockpivot

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by WDGann-Lost-Secrets.com
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE FOR VIEWING

The chart to the left shows the present pivot price point of interest for the stock market.

The recent down slide in price remains intact until we cross certain price thresholds.

The red downward triangle is pointing to the critical price level to watch for the DJIA.

Should prices rise rapidly above the present price level, I’d consider the downswing to be completed and a renewal a new upswing to be underway.

In addition, on a daily basis, WD Gann timing techniques favor this day as a top with another turn point 3 days into the future to watch.

Have a great week ahead. – George

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Week of Jan. 13th, 2014:

The Dow Jones Stock Index This Week . . .

djiaupdate

Where are we in the Stock Market this week?

As we’re presently pulling back some from the recent top, we find ourselves poised between the two price areas shown on this chart with the green and red horizontal lines.

The green line at the top shows a strong price resistance point at the 16,500 right now. It will take a little pause and pullback in price to ready the market momentum for a new surge upwards to break through the green line price level.

On the other hand, the market itself has a strong support price area at work at the 16,000 price area as shown by the lower red line below present prices. It’s entirely possible that prices may decline this week, however, they’re likely to stay above the support area while doing it. – George

AGoldBarsBar

Stock Market Sets It’s Sights . . . Higher

WHERE’S THE STOCK MARKET HEADED? . . . HIGHER!

Most investors are nervous these days, and, the headlines on any given day can provide fuel for that anxiety without limit.

Studies have shown that Human Beings are hard-wired to avoid risk.

But, this programming usually works to our detriment when it comes to investments.

The news and financial crises today create a sense of risk everywhere, so, the result of this aura of fear is to stand back or get out of the markets.

This is also why the masses of investors MISS most bull markets until very late in the game. People perceive what’s presented as risk instead of opportunity.

Take the Stock Market for example. One should always remain flexible when it comes to patterns in the markets.

dowtop

Here’s the DOW showing a pattern of a double-top. It’s taught that this pattern precedes a decline. But, while patterns can be extremely useful, they don’t always mean the same thing each time you see them.

Here’s the hazard. If you’re convinced that double or triple tops always mean a crash or decline ahead, then, you’ll perceive that the lowest risk is to the downside for all trades. (remember that study about people being wired to take the lowest perceived risk and not the high perceived risk situations)?

If that opinion is shared by most traders (because they’ve all learned the same response to this price pattern), then, they’ll stand aside or watch in wonder as stock prices rise and continue to rise, all while waiting for the crash that never comes and feeling (perceiving) that they took the least risky decision by waiting .

This why profits elude so many.

There is something one can do to offset this prevalent crowd attitude and reaction. Pull back to the relative non-emotional decision platform of interpreting price charts instead of news broadcasts.

This will free you up to SEE what’s actually occurring instead of reacting to WHAT OTHERS THINK IS HAPPENING.

The first approach is based on objective reality while the second is all emotion based primarily on fear.

PATTERNS ARE MADE SPECIFICALLY TO BE BROKEN

apressurecooker

We’ve been flirting with double and triple tops in various Stock Market indices which often are a prelude to the market going lower. This then is a trading pattern along with many others which only work sometimes but, which are given far too much weight for reliability. The truth is that price patterns are promoted so they can be broken at strategic times by market makers.

Patterns viewed in this manner become less dangerous to the investor as expectations can be lowered when coming across them.

Although the double and triple tops we’re seeing now in the Dow & S&P 500 are strong price resistance points going back in time, one must realize that eventually all tops and bottoms are penetrated by new and stronger trends.

When these price patterns are broken, their strong resistance turns into equally strong support for a newly rising market trend.

The problem with today’s stock market outlook is that everyone is expecting the market to go lower for a large number of reasons all of which seem rational. This means that average investors perceive the lowest risk to be on the short side of the market (after all, everyone ‘knows’ the market is going to decline, right?). Sadly, the throng are mostly wrong.

This type of large investment crowd perception is just what market makers look for as a base to go solidly in the other direction.

I believe we’re now seeing that ‘higher market’ card being played.

The ‘proof’ for this is coming from a perspective that few look at.

The most common markets discussed are the Dow Jones Industrial Averages or the S&P 500. These markets are endlessly analyzed during each trading day.

But, we need to look at a broader based selection of stocks that just the 30 of the Dow or the 500 of the S&P.

If we instead examine . . .

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If we instead examine a broad index like the Russell 2000, we’ll find a solid clue on the future for the Stock Market as shown on the chart following.

russell

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Note that this chart reveals that small business is already in a Bull Market and has bolted out of the coral earlier than the other indices. This is, in all likelihood, a leading indicator for what will follow in the indexes shown above.

The Russell 2000 has already broken out of the traditional Head and Shoulders price formation and is gaining at a rate greater than 17 % per year. A handsome return. – George

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Stock Slide: Less Important Than It Feels

Today’s slide in the DJIA is not as important as it seems.

DJIA drop viewed with some perspective

DJIA drop viewed with some perspective. – Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Stocks: Stepping Back to See the View . . .

The media was in full swing today.

We saw it all.

Panic, confusion, speculation. Interpretation.

When all was said and done though, none of it helped clarify market conditions much at all.

When events are confused, it’s best to step back a bit. There’s a great deal of clarity in comparison when viewed from a proper distance.

In our case here, a simple daily chart provided the answers needed today.

The chart segment to the left shows that, at these high price levels, today’s range, (even with the 200 point drop), was not noticeable when viewed along with other daily range bars on the chart from the last several weeks.

So, was today really that startling after all? No.

Today’s drop hardly bears mentioning and didn’t violate any serious price support areas.

Of course that doesn’t mean that tomorrow won’t take us lower but what I’m watching, and you should too, is the support area shown on bottom edge of the second chart (the one with the large green upwards slanting rectangle).

If prices should renew their descent, violation of this price level by descending prices will be a very important early signal that the price momentum has shifted.

Changes in momentum can be detected quite early and advance preparation for such changes can keep panic out of the investment equation and allow one to ACT and not hesitate at the critical moments.

The larger chart shows how long this particular upswing has been in force.

As well, you can view the red bars showing how early this upswing could have been detected using the Excalibur Method of analysis to the DJIA chart. – George

DJIA early warning using the Excalibur Method of analysis

DJIA early warning using the Excalibur Method of analysis. – Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Stocks in a Potential Sell-Off Zone

DJIA FLIRTS WITH POTENTIAL TOP PRICE AREA

Today’s post is looking at the DJIA Stock Index.

While stocks have been moving smartly upwards, the present price level for the DJIA is one that’s likely to see a sell-off before the next rise in price.

SHOULD THAT OCCUR . . .

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On the chart below, the red circles represent previously anticipated SELLING AREAS while the green circle represents a high potential BUYING AREA in the DJIA (using the Excalibur Method for our analysis).

DJIA Analysis Using The Excalibur Method

DJIA Analysis Using The Excalibur Method

Should prices instead continue to rally, a target area at about 13,950-14,000 can be expected to be reached on a rally of around 450-500 points.

A price drop should easily reach down to 13,150-13,200 and meet resistance at that price range. – George

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WD GANN: BIG MARKET MOVES

THE WD GANN PERSPECTIVE:

PROFITING WHEN BIG MOVES BEGIN & END

It’s been a while now since we’ve pointed out the importance of knowing just where one is relative to the larger trends in the markets; the Big Market Moves.

The beginnings and endings of these are where the greatest profit opportunities lie as WD GANN used to state in his books and courses.

With so much profit potential and price momentum available at these critical turning points in trend, one needs a reliable and accurate approach to detecting and taking advantage of these important entry and exit points.

Looking back at the previous DOW peaks and lows on the following chart, you’ll see some important potential entry and exit price indications to contemplate.

Past Potential DJIA Entry & Exit Points Using the Excalibur Method

Past Potential DJIA Entry & Exit Points Using the Excalibur Method.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Do you have an approach that can define these important price areas for your investments or portfolio yet? Though much attention is focused on short-term moves in markets like Forex these days, it’s important to always take in the bigger picture and both major and minor trends at work at any one time.

For portfolios, longer-term traders or cash-oriented producers (like farmers) a solid, natural-based technical understanding of the market’s condition and trend is vitally important. We’ll look in the days ahead at some other recent historical perspectives in other markets and their telltale charting patterns.

Here’s the recent Great Cotton Bull Market move that exceeded even the great bull move of 1867:

Bull Market Cotton Move Using The Excalibur Method

Bull Market Cotton Move Using The Excalibur Method

Here again, WD Gann’s comments about the greatest profit potentials being those surrounding such moves holds true for this great bull market move. Besides this amazing timing technique, there are some other hidden factors that prevent all but a few per cent from investing in situations like these. We’ll discuss them in the days ahead, but, I warn you that they are steps that are not ‘popular’. That’s why they’re not used. Have a great week ahead.

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WD GANN: DOW Time Factors

W.D. GANN:

Important DOW Time Factors

WD GANN Time Factors: DJIA Normal Seasonal Trend Year

WD GANN Time Factors: DJIA Normal Seasonal Trend Year.
Chart courtesy of Finviz.com

WD GANN wrote quite a bit about TIME and stated that it was ultimately, more important than price when it came to market trends endings and beginnings.

GANN stated that: “The TIME FACTOR is the most important. When TIME is up, Time or Space movements will reverse.”

Mr. Gann also said to “Remember that the “overbalancing” of TIME is the most important indication of a change in trend.

The  Stock Market continues to generate a lot of interest as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Averages (DJIA). It’s hoped by most that they’ll get some sort of a clue to the state of the Economy by watching the index.

As stocks mostly lead the economy by quite a time period, they can be used to discern the future in a rough way.

But, there are also Time elements or Time Factors that must be considered when evaluating the future actions of the Stock Indexes.

One of those Time Factors is . . . the Seasonal Time Pattern.

Normally, seasonality is associated with commodities, but, Human behavior is often very patterned and repetitive over longer time periods and, it turns out that there is an ‘average’ or seasonal pattern of investor behavior for the DOW just as there is for Corn, Soybeans or Gold.

That means there is a prevalent period for selling and generally low interest in buying and a fairly predictable time for buying and low interest in selling.

Tested over a good number of years, an average expectation of  ‘normal’ stock market actions (including periods of expected tops and bottoms) can be charted.

WD GANN Time Factors and Seasonal Charts

WD GANN Time Factors and Seasonal Charts.
Chart courtesy of EquityClock.com

We’re in a normal  Seasonal Time Pattern at the moment as can be seen in the chart below:

WD GANN Time Factors: DJIA Normal Seasonal Trend Year

WD GANN Time Factors: DJIA Normal Seasonal Trend Year.
Chart courtesy of Finviz.com

Beneath this Seasonal Time Factor, there’s another set of Time Factors supporting this market. It’s this set of invisible Time Factors that I watch closely for changes.

Please understand; the Seasonal Pattern is very strong and can give one a reliability of predictions well beyond 70-80% in some cases, but, there are more fundamental forces that actually ‘create’ the Seasonal Patterns themselves and these forces will give the earliest indication of when markets start to deviate from their ‘normal’ seasonal patterns.

Here’s a chart showing the longer-term Time Factor affecting the strength of the Dow right now:

WD Gann: The present Dow Yearly Time Factor for 2012

WD Gann: The present Dow Yearly Time Factor for 2012.
Chart courtesy of Finviz.com

The importance of this chart can’t be overestimated. It clearly shows that there hasn’t been ANY true reversal of the strong upwards trend of the DOW since the bottom back in 2009!

Forget the media and talking heads. Look at the chart and the green line on it. That’s the dominant trend at present. Everything else is shorter-term ‘blips’ of minor significance.

There’s no match-up of this chart with the ‘depression-era’ charts.  None.

Will there be another crack in the DOW?

Of course, but, the important point is that’s it’s not happening now.

By observing and absorbing the meaning of this chart, one becomes of aware of the market ‘Times’ we’re presently in.

Clearly. – George

The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Course limited access notice

The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Course limited access notice

STOCKS: HOW HIGH IS UP?

LOOKING FOR THE NEXT STOCK MARKET HIGH

In a previous post, a stock market support or BUY area prediction was shown by the green box area on the chart.

The stock market, despite all the doomsayers, did, indeed, rally and take off from that low point as indicated and is headed upwards as I write these words.

So, what’s our next anticipated Sell off area for the stock market that we should be looking for?

I’ve included a chart of what my indicators show to be the most likely price area where profits will be taken and prices pushed back downward with this posting.

By the way, these predictions are made using the Excalibur Method (which you can learn more about on this site by clicking on the tabs at the top of the page).

You’ll need to join our special gathering called ‘The Money Tigers Group’ in order see this latest prediction and to be able to view more examples like this in the future as well as be notified by e-mail when they’re posted.

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Here’s the Chart for the DOW:

The next predicted SELL area for the DOW

The next predicted SELL area for the DOW

The price area shown in reddish color around the 13350-13450 area is the price level where expected SELLING will take place.

Should price be able to push on beyond these levels without pausing, then, the likelihood of price rising upwards of 13700 will become excellent. [/private_free]

More updates and new price BUY & SELL predictions for other markets will be posted soon. – George

Dow Support Prediction Update

LOOKING AT THE MARCH 7th DOW PREDICTION

On March 7th, I posted a chart and comment on what was expected for the DOW in the coming days.

The chart showed a green box indicating a price area where support was expected to come into the markets holding price from going lower and acting as a springboard to higher prices which would follow.

By way of an update, I’ve superimposed the chart from that date upon today’s chart for the DOW so we can examine how that prediction did.

A Dow Prediction Update Chart

A Dow Prediction Update Chart

As it turns out, prices did find support exactly where expected and then the market started upwards from there to rally for 4 days straight.

The important point is not that I could make this prediction, but, that ANYONE with the proper techniques could make the same prediction for themselves.

The  objective should be to become your own independent analyst and investor/trader.

Or, at least, that would be the path that would give you the most independence and sense of control in your investing and trading Life.

I’ll present more examples in future postings. – George

As this site is purely educational and not an advisory service, examples of these predictive techniques are shown periodically in advance in our private members area which is viewable to members only.

You’ll need to join to view more examples like this in the future and to be notified by e-mail when they’re posted.

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