Hang Seng Index Cracking?
Here’s another interesting twist in the financial order.
We’re constantly exposed to negative headlines and stories about the US, UK and Western economies. About weakness, recession and woe. And, indeed there’s plenty of bad news to go around without a doubt.
But, I’m drawn to what I don’t read about but actually ‘see’ taking place in the markets of the world.
Markets, whether bond, stock or commodities market, are where money is put to work.
For a while it was Real Estate that was over- heated to a red-hot lava bubble which naturally burst.
Now, many tell us that Asia is our savior and that that is where the future of investing will be.
That is probably true over the long-term, but, in the short-term investment money can be quickly gobbled up by naive new investors in the Asian markets.
Just as I noted that non-US currencies were starting to weaken (British Pound, Australian Dollar, Euro, etc.), now, I’m starting to ‘see’ the beginnings of another surprise coming from the Hang Seng Market Index for Chinese stocks.
Click on the chart to enlarge for clarity
Observe the beginning of what could soon be big news this week or even overnight.
My interpretation is price that momentum is, for whatever fundamental reason, being choked and weakness, at least shorter term, is taking it’s place in the Hang Seng Market.
Granted the New Year celebrations are still to come in China, but, this is a bit early and seems to indicate that the incoming funds were coming from the Western side of the world and have slowed because of the Holidays here.
Will that be enough slowing to tip things over the edge? There has been some talk of US currency shortages in foreign countries and there no being enough spare dollars to continue buying US Treasuries at the same rate as before.
This slowdown in momentum may first show as a slip into sideways price action.
A sharp down-turn in Asia will likely spread throughout the region and if it starts now, may go largely unnoticed by traders in the West during this Holiday period. Too much partying can divert attentions.
Just when distractions are plentiful is a good time to prepare for surprises though.
Now, having said that, I need to point out that oddly, I presently don’t see this same weakness in the Shanghai Composite.
Yet.
Whether these two markets can diverge is an open question, but, it doesn’t seem likely on the surface.
We’ll just watch and see how this develops.
I could err on this by being too early but, it would align with the other currency surprises we mentioned and give us something to talk about as we begin the New Year.
Thanks for reading. - George
Legal Disclaimer: The content on this site and articles are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All information on this site is given for educational purposes only.
The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES “INVESTMENT ADVICE” NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, FOREX, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The Money Tigers Group © 2011
Tags: WD Gann, stock market prediction, gold traders
The Excalibur Method, gold price predictions, timing the markets, money tigers, trading education, gold price charts, e mini trading, technical analysis
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Australian Dollar shifting gears
The month of December close to the Holidays is traditionally a time when specialists and floor traders and other major investors take some time off from the markets.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some interesting clues they’re leaving behind on the charts.
There are some intriguing changes in a few markets that I’ll be covering in the days ahead as I assemble a glance at the year ahead (or the next month or so to start).
One I’d like to leave you with today to ponder is the case of the seemingly perpetually bullish Australian Dollar.
Something significant is happening with the Australian Dollar.
A trend and market strategy of generating a ROI of over 3% per month in the cash Australian Dollar has just ended and shifted gears.
This may not be a short-term interruption either.
The second chart on the left shows how strong this change is.
The chart to the left is a weekly chart and also shows signs of weakening prices for the Australian Dollar.
The fundamentals we’ll never really know, but, there has been some talk in some circles of (hard to believe) a shortage of US Dollars in overseas economies causing upward valuation in the US Dollar and weakening non-US currencies at the same time.
The same thing is happening in the British Pound, the Swiss Franc and the Euro among others.
The Euro has really led the parade downward as the chart below testifies:
The non-US currencies are weakening as a group with the Euro leading and now, with the Australian Dollar (one of the strongest throughout this financial crisis) starting to slide too.
Inflation in commodity prices unfortunately continues with the exception of Gasoline and Crude Oil.
Gold, of course, recently has pulled back too, but, the inflationary pressure of the many other commodities has not been offset as yet.
We’ll continue to track the inflationary index and watch these new trends in currencies.
Have an enjoyable weekend. – George
Legal Disclaimer: The content on this site and articles are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All information on this site is given for educational purposes only.
The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES “INVESTMENT ADVICE” NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, FOREX, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The Money Tigers Group © 2011
Tags: WD Gann, stock market prediction, gold traders
The Excalibur Method, gold price predictions, timing the markets, money tigers, trading education, gold price charts, e mini trading, technical analysis
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The British Pound/Yen Trade
GBP/JPY: Pound/Yen - An earlier (yesterday), offline analysis of the Pound/Yen chart showed that prices were in an overbought price zone.
Though this chart was a snapshot of earlier yesterday, you can see how having some insight into where the big money is reacting or acting on the market can be an advantage.
The selling area (shown in the red rectangle) was no lie which was proven as prices dipped overnight past our uptrend support buy area and crossed our short-term (green) money tiger intention trend line.
This all indicated lower prices to come, which is exactly what has happened.
I draw your attention to the latest chart of the Pound/Yen trade below now.
The chart to the left shows 2 points (the red ovals) that the ‘Excalibur’ method indicated as places to go short this market.
Our Stairway method also indicated the second red oval from the left as a confirming signal.
These are all shorter-term price movement trends we’re tracking here.
But, the longer term outlook will tell us what’s really going on.
Let’s take a look at the long-term perspective using the same methods of analysis.
This chart where each bar represents a weeks movement, is telling.
While the Pound has been rising relative to the Yen for many months, it has shifted to a down trend that is accelerating (in my opinion based on my methods).
This means that they’ll be some dire news coming to account for what’s happening, but, don’t expect it to hit the mainstream media.
I’d expect that those with huge positions in the Pound and Yen will have to unload into willing hands. That’s the Money Tigers way of doing business.
That means feeding out some positive slanted opinions or articles until these money tigers are fully loaded and short the Pound, long the Yen.
It seems to me that the initial sharpness of the break this morning is the kind of speed we can expect in steps on the way down from here.
That’s the view and comments for this morning. - George
Legal Disclaimer: The content on this site and articles are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All information on this site is given for educational purposes only.
The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES “INVESTMENT ADVICE” NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, FOREX, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The Money Tigers Group © 2011
Tags: WD Gann, stock market prediction, gold traders
The Excalibur Method, gold price predictions, timing the markets, money tigers, trading education, gold price charts, e mini trading, technical analysis
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