As Isaac Newton Observed:
An Invisible Force is Pulling the ‘APPLE’ Downwards
Great was the Chorus and the multitudes thundered their applause once when APPLE was anointed the King of all Stocks.
It’s rise in price was relentless and it’s admirers were everywhere to be found on tv and investment shows advocating the ‘rightness’ of all this overvalue even when APPLE‘s stock value exceeded almost every other company.
Warning bells should have sounded, but, a new generation instead was led like the lambs they are to a new realization about the markets – These stocks fall down too.
This has been a enlightening realization for traders like the one that Isaac Newton received when he contemplated his falling apple back in the day.
Can we find an analogy?
When released from support, gravity (or, it’s equivalent in the markets – Selling) will take things back down to the reality of Earth’s surface (and the reality of real ‘value’).
My work involves, (besides market-related techniques & discoveries), researching the History of markets, specifically the History of price movements over the past years, decades and, yes, even centuries as I have charts of some going back that far and one thing I see repetitively over these spans of time is the ‘crowd’ mentality cycle of over-exuberance in bidding up a market and the following shell shock from a popular stock or commodity which peaks and then reverses sharply.
It takes a generation of so for a new cast of characters or customers to arrive on the scene ready to be educated anew.
Markets go through long, quiet periods not because there’s a lack of interest, but, because there’s a lack of naive traders. Experience eventually teaches traders not to fall for price traps and this quiets market price moves.
It takes a new crop of inexperienced traders and their money to grease the machine and create active markets again.
Enter, the Young and those with inherited wealth.
And, while the enthusiasm of Youth is normally a wonderful thing, in the markets it’s often used to create new cash flow for the seasoned market-makers. This market-maker group will provide all the interest and excitement necessary (just like Las Vegas does with bells, lights and showgirls) to pull new players into the Game.
Energy and enthusiasm are wonderful, but, need a sense of perspective to keep them in check.
In short, a sense of History is what most of us need to see clearly just where we are in Time and where we are in the ‘Season’ of a Stock, Commodity or Forex pair.
Below, I share some additional charts and comments about the fate of APPLE in the days ahead. Please JOIN HERE in order to get immediate access to information like this in the future.
It’s still free join and you’ll get immediately notified of future posts as they occur as well as have access to unique and very private trading techniques and methods of analysis for your own trading needs.
Let’s look at just what advantage is ours when we broaden our perspectives to include an understanding of the ‘Season’ of a stock’s life.
Just as with people, there are distinct phases of life for a stock including the exuberance of youth (as often displayed by spiking prices with no reason except the excitement of the times).
Stocks that will become great, like people again, start their lives slowly with little action and end their lives often the same way. But, in between those phases we can have periods like that shown in APPLE these past few years as shown below:
As the above chart shows, a strong year-long trend was detected as ending (by the Excalibur Method) at the point shown by the blue oval.
This is an important decision point for one’s portfolio if holding stock for the long term is part of the investment goal.
Because, long-term momentum with price is often matched by a similar period of time trending in the opposite direction. So, we can expect prices to continue to decline a while longer if the momentum isn’t too steep to the downside. A fast break downwards would shorten the period needed to compensate for the previous upside movement.
Let’s look at what this market looked like when everyone loved it because it was moving upwards:
In keeping with the other nature of crowd psychology after peaks in markets, we hear almost nothing negative about this stock in the media as yet.After a decline of almost 37%!
Though quick to encourage others to get on board while the rocket is making new highs, no one seems to have noticed that the trajectory has altered in an alarming way since the heady days at $700 a share!
Markets have a nature to work from the micro to the macro; from the smallest time frames to the greater time frames.
Most today seek out and look only at the micro time frame level. By stepping back to look at least at the weekly charts, you’ll at least be open to developing the ability to gauge the context within which price is making it’s micro or daily swings. – George
As you can see on the charts, there’s a distinct advantage to a tool that can detect major or minor shifts in market prices.
The EXCALIBUR METHOD is a superior way of tracking the price turns for both intraday and longer time periods. Whether for Stocks, Commodities or Forex; this method of analysis can be your best Allie in the battle for profits in the markets. You can learn more by visiting the testimonial links on this page or by going HERE for more in-depth detail.