It isn't personal, it's only TREND.

The Euro short trade we proposed vanished without a trace into the mists.

We were basically left with a break-even trade sequence.

We originally had an expectation of more selling of the EURO ahead, but, that rosy expectation very soon became the victim of a change in trend and, if I’ve learned one thing it’s this:

Trend is the Master of the Markets.

My read on this is simple.

The Market was right.

Sure, the trend was indicating downward and trend was correct (at the time the call was posted).

Internally, however, I think I was expecting something ‘more’ in the line of a drop in price than was in the cards.

There was no real reason to expect this based on my earlier information or the Excalibur method I use to evaluate the markets with.

In retrospect, the downward trend line in my previous blog was a shallow one which indicated shallow short-term selling of the EURO, not massive selling.

There’s something more in this feedback trend information though if we look closer. And, I admit it’s beginning to bother me a little.

I’m becoming aware that I’m suddenly hearing ‘news’ out there in media-land that’s a little too one-sided and ‘certain’ as to the future direction of the EURO to possibly be right.

I don’t mind being early on a call, but, I definitely don’t like a lot of company in the same play in the same direction.

That just isn’t how it works in the real-world.

The mass of investment psychology is wrong at critical moments.

So, what’s the news then?

There now appears to be information that there’s a huge tidal wave of short-selling of the EURO hanging over the market.

The result of all this ‘certain’ information about the market’s future direction?

Why, the EURO rises, of course!

I never tire of seeing this public relations market manipulation at work.  It’s good, really, really good at influencing the public investor’s mind – in the wrong direction.

I mean, look at it. There’s such a good fundamental reason for the EURO to be weak right now.

It’s as simple as 2 + 2 = 4 .

Or, is it?

The flaw in this equation is that markets don’t comply with Fundamental information. The public isn’t given any that’s truly valuable.

The best information is kept hidden by market interests closest to the market. It isn’t shared with the public except to get the public into the opposite side of their trade.

The public is someone to ‘sell to’ and ‘take profits from’ from the insider’s perspective.

The way that’s done is by feeding false information that appears logical and true to the media (which acts largely as an advertising arm for corporate interests) which can then stir interest by the public in taking on the opposite position to the one the big money tigers of the markets are actually holding.

BEWARE! George Soros is laughing at the Public again.

We saw this most recently with George Soros publicly declaring at the Davos conference in an ‘interview’ how Gold was the ultimate  ‘bubble’ thereby implying that it was ready to burst.

It now turns out from separate sources that Soros was simultaneously BUYING Gold massively for himself.

This brings up two important points:

First: Multi-billionaires are not compelled to give interviews except by self-interest.

They already have all the attention, wine, women and song they can handle at any time night or day. The only thing they continue to crave and cannot satisfy is . . .

MORE WEALTH.

Look at the George Soros picture above and ask yourself:

“What makes a multi-Billionaire smile?”.

The appropriate answer should give you pause and cause to check your pockets and investment portfolios for ‘holes’ in them.

Secondly: Multi-billionaires need a huge ‘customer’ base to buy what they’re selling.

That ‘customer’ base is YOU!

What are they selling, you ask?

What are they talking about in the most glowing terms? That’s what they want YOU to buy.

If they are spreading fear about something about to happen (like Soros talking about Gold as the ‘ultimate’ bubble), then, that’s what they’re buying and they want you to sell it to them at panic fire-sale prices.

When are they selling?

Whenever their lips are moving.

Here’s the rule of good salesmanship:

ABC – Always Be Selling.

It’s a mantra with salesmen and these guys are just high scale versions of that breed.

Bottom line is that, with a technical approach to trading, we’re able to develop our own signals on whether a market is oversold or overbought.

We don’t count on others words or interviews to coach us into action and therefore, we don’t have to be wary of their real, underlying motivations.

We can just bypass that vulnerable stage of analysis completely.

With the EURO, I’ve noted that the Daily price moves have become much tighter and look like they’re about to reverse.

It hasn’t happened yet, but, we’ll be watching to see if there’s something afoot here and catch the switch early.

Have a relaxed weekend. – George

Disclaimer: The content on this site and article is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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The last trade which we were posting about was the Euro which we’d chosen as an example of how longer-term trend can help us to wait and then position ourselves for good moves in a market.

There’s nothing special about the Euro in this regard.

I just had to pick some market and that was the one that was best positioned to make my point about picking one direction and being patient.

Ignoring the bait, we just choose to wait . . .

Our last posting was right on target as to timing.

The reversal to the upside occurred shortly after the posting of our chart as was expected.

The first blue circle on the left represents where we would have closed out our short position from about 1.3640, so, this would have been a profitable trade.

Once the trend reversal signal was given, one could have taken a long position on the short-term. But, that wasn’t the point I’ve been trying to make in these last examples, so, that signal was ignored for good reason.

The reason was simple: I was not looking for a long position in a weak currency.

Since the daily trend is solidly down, it would be illogical and probably unwise for me to take long signals intraday.

It would just be a matter of time (and probably not much time at that) before the Euro would reassert it’s downward movement.

Well, that’s exactly what happened. Faster than expected, but, expected.

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But, the Euro is only one market of many with great opportunities out there.

The S&P 500, another market of interest

The S&P 500:

The stock market as represented by the S&P 500 has begun to weaken in the last few days.

As this is a short-term trend phenomena, we won’t ascribe too much meaning here.

Yet.

If prices at the end of today are lower than yesterday’s lows, and, if prices close lower than yesterday’s lows, I will take notice of this market more seriously and would expect several day’s of lower swings ahead.

That’s it for now. Have a great day. – George

A reminder: These posts are for educational purposes only concerning my own private methods of analysis and are not recommendations or advice to buy or sell or to really do anything except to observe, along with me the rhythm of market price movements and try to align ourselves with them.

Disclaimer: The content on this site and article is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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