Posts Tagged ‘Australian Dollar’

Holiday ‘Hello’s’ to all you money tiger trackers out there.

I hope you’re getting ready to settle in for a long winter’s nap (Holiday-wise anyways).

Best wishes for this Holiday and for a prosperous and less confusing New Year.

Here’s a little update on the blog sent out yesterday.

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE STOCK INDEX:

In yesterday’s observations, I mentioned that the Hang Seng Index was tipping over the edge, but, that the Shanghai Composite Stock Index wasn’t at that point – YET.

Well, what a difference a day makes. It seems that overnight, as we suspected, the two markets came closer to alignment and agreement on a future direction for trend:

DOWN. Here’s the chart.

The Shanghai Composite is teetering on the edge of the cliff. Click chart to enlarge for clarity.

The downward movement of this market into alignment with the Hang Seng ups the odds heavily that there will be a break to the downside that is fast and noticeable.

Now that the world has turned to the Chinese markets and China in general to see if it is pointing the way to prosperity, the time is ripe for a disappointment to new investors.

What will appear as losses to us will be profit-taking by the true money-tigers of the East.

Money is leaving Gold, the Euro, Australian Dollar and other currencies and is going into the US Dollar for some reason we’re as yet unaware of.

Money needs to go somewhere to work and commodities (excepting the precious metals) and the US Dollar seem to be some of the prime destination spots for this flexible, global traveling cash.

GOLD: The Gold market hit our bottom resistance price area of $1080 which we set a week or so ago.

click chart to enlarge for clarity

So, I would set the next step down in price before a rebound (and for a high probability bottom for this cycle) at between $1036.40-$1046.50 ( assuming Cash Gold’s high as $1226 NY Spot).

I favor the lower end of the range as likely.

We’ll just wait and see how the gold trend develops.

As the chart to the left shows, price trend continues in a decline phase on the 30-day Gold price charts.

This blog will have a few days off as we draw closer to the Holidays, but, I’ll be posting some thoughts before the New Year on other markets and trends. - George

P.S.:

A reminder: These posts are for educational purposes only concerning my own private methods of analysis and are not recommendations or advice to buy or sell  or to really do anything except to observe, along with me the rhythm of the big money tiger traders and institutions working at what they do best – swinging and manipulating market prices.

Disclaimer: The content on this site and article is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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Here’s another interesting twist in the financial order.

We’re constantly exposed to negative headlines and stories about the US, UK and Western economies. About weakness, recession and woe. And, indeed there’s plenty of bad news to go around without a doubt.

But, I’m drawn to what I don’t read about but actually ‘see’ taking place in the markets of the world.

Markets, whether bond, stock or commodities market, are where money is put to work.

For a while it was Real Estate that was over- heated to a red-hot lava bubble which naturally burst.

Now, many tell us that Asia is our savior and that that is where the future of investing will be.

That is probably true over the long-term, but, in the short-term investment money can be quickly gobbled up by naive new investors in the Asian markets.

Just as I noted that non-US currencies were starting to weaken (British Pound, Australian Dollar, Euro, etc.), now, I’m starting to ‘see’ the beginnings of another surprise coming from the Hang Seng Market Index for Chinese stocks.

Click on the chart to enlarge for clarity

Observe the beginning of what could soon be big news this week or even overnight.

My interpretation is price that momentum is, for whatever fundamental reason, being choked and weakness, at least shorter term, is taking it’s place in the Hang Seng Market.

Granted the New Year celebrations are still to come in China, but, this is a bit early and seems to indicate that the incoming funds were coming from the Western side of the world and have slowed because of the Holidays here.

Will that be enough slowing to tip things over the edge? There has been some talk of US currency shortages in foreign countries and there no being enough spare dollars to continue buying US Treasuries at the same rate as before.

This slowdown in momentum may first show as a slip into sideways price action.

A sharp down-turn in Asia will likely spread throughout the region and if it starts now, may go largely unnoticed by traders in the West during this Holiday period. Too much partying can divert attentions.

Just when distractions are plentiful is a good time to prepare for surprises though.

Now, having said that, I need to point out that oddly, I presently don’t see this same weakness in the Shanghai Composite.

Yet.

Whether these two markets can diverge is an open question, but, it doesn’t seem likely on the surface.

We’ll just watch and see how this develops.

I could err on this by being too early but, it would align with the other currency surprises we mentioned and give us something to talk about as we begin the New Year.

Thanks for reading. - George

Disclaimer: The content on this site and article is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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More From tigergroup

• Talking About Gold
• Euro Reset
• The Virtues of Trading the Markets

The month of December close to the Holidays is traditionally a time when specialists and floor traders and other major investors take some time off from the markets.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some interesting clues they’re leaving behind on the charts.

There are some intriguing changes in a few markets that I’ll be covering in the days ahead as I assemble a glance at the year ahead (or the next month or so to start).

One I’d like to leave you with today to ponder is the case of the seemingly perpetually bullish Australian Dollar.

Something significant is happening with the Australian Dollar.

A trend and market strategy of generating a ROI of over 3% per month in the cash Australian Dollar has just ended and shifted gears.

This may not be a short-term interruption either.

The second chart on the left shows how strong this change is.

The chart to the left is a weekly chart and also shows signs of weakening prices for the Australian Dollar.

The fundamentals we’ll never really know, but, there has been some talk in some circles of (hard to believe) a shortage of US Dollars in overseas economies causing upward valuation in the US Dollar and weakening non-US currencies at the same time.

The same thing is happening in the British Pound, the Swiss Franc and the Euro among others.

The Euro has really led the parade downward as the chart below testifies:

The non-US currencies are weakening as a group with the Euro leading and now, with the Australian Dollar (one of the strongest throughout this financial crisis) starting to slide too.

Inflation in commodity prices unfortunately continues with the exception of Gasoline and Crude Oil.

Gold, of course, recently has pulled back too, but, the inflationary pressure of the many other commodities has not been offset as yet.

We’ll continue to track the inflationary index and watch these new trends in currencies.

Have an enjoyable weekend. – George

Disclaimer: The content on this site and article is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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This is just a short posting to let you know that I’m relocating to the Pacific NorthWest over the next week or so and, what with the chaos that comes with moving, I’ll be a little delayed in posting any new findings to the site during that time.

Here’s my update after a quick assessment before my move:[Content protected for members only]

Disclaimer: The content on this site and article is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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