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THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET BREAK

PREDICTING THE ‘CHINA H SHARES’ MARKET BREAK

Last week’s break in the China H Shares Market caught most by surprise and shock.

The meltdown of the market with it’s plunging prices was quick but presented a high profit potential for those who could anticipate and exit their long positions or sell into this falling market.

ChinaH

The fundamentals will be debated as to ‘why’ this happened, but, it’s been my mission on this website to deal with the ‘WHEN it will happen’ question.

The Excalibur Method has remained a reliable tool of analysis to answer the question of ‘WHEN’ for years now (on both this website and our earlier www.money-tigers.com website).

As you can see on the 15-minute chart for China H-Shares, Excalibur found a weak, balance pivot-point where both Price and Time were most vulnerable to a momentum ‘push’.

And, that’s just what happened.

This form of analysis must be accurate and not time dependent to be of most use to traders and investors.

In other words, the time frame for the bars or candlesticks, whether 5-minutes or 1-hour shouldn’t alter our results as what we’re pursuing is a fundamental mathematical truth and not a subjective one.

ChinaH2Truth holds at all time levels.

To the left is the very same China H-Shares market but with one-hour bars instead of 15-minute ones as in the previous chart.

The results of the analysis are the same.

The same time and price pivot point was obtained, and, in advance of the market reaching it!

This is just the latest example out of hundreds these last 5 years.

The volatile times we’re in now really require an extra edge when it comes to analysis and knowing IN ADVANCE where critical price points are located.

I encourage those who seek to thrive in these markets to consider The Excalibur Method. This method of determining optimum investment and exit times for the markets will set you on a new and most satisfying trading path of success.

For a limited time, those who purchase The Excalibur Method will receive a valuable and very special additional technique that will multiply your market insights immensely!

To learn more, you’ll need to inquire by e-mail by clicking here.

Thank you for taking the time to read this post. We’ll be examining some other exciting markets in the days ahead. – George

Show Me The Money (Flow)!

SHOW ME THE MONEY (Flow)!

By George R. Harrison

TRACKING MONEY-FLOW THROUGH VALUE SHIFTS IN MARKETS

We’ve all heard of the old magicians trick of distracting with one hand while the other is where the real set-up is taking place.

It seems we’re up against the same process at work in the markets we’re experiencing today.

There’s a fundamental and major shift taking place. Everyone feels the ‘vibe’ of it, but, where’s the proof (instead of the speculation) to bear out the truth of it?

It’s not to be found from conventional sources, that much is clear.

Like trying to detect the secrets of the magician, we need to focus on what the ‘other hand’ is up to.

When it comes to markets, a one-dimensional approach isn’t enough to reveal the whole multidimensional story.

Charts for stocks or commodities tend to be one-dimensional in that they’re generally denominated in that market’s national currency and this very fact can disguise the effects of that market relative to the international flow of money.

In other words, the question that needs answering is: ‘Is the international, ‘smart’ money flowing towards the market in question or away from it back into the world reserve currency (the US DOLLAR)?

Take the Bombay Stock Exchange index (BSE) for example in the chart below . . .

BSE_1

A quick one-dimensional look shows a strong bull market rise with, what looks like a normal downside reaction taking place within the trend.

However, to gauge a foreign market’s international VALUE, it needs to be compared with the world reserve currency, which, at this time, is the US DOLLAR.

A shift in a market’s value relative to the US Dollar, will reveal where the international flow of money from that market is headed. This will, in turn, reveal underlying strengths or weaknesses that may not be immediately obvious in the local currency denominated chart for that market.

When we compare the BSE to the US Dollar and chart that, we see something more revealing:

BSE_2

What shows as ‘weakness’ on this chart (the recent pull-back in prices) is now revealed to be something more serious as the money flow is shifting towards the US Dollar internationally and away from the BSE.

This is a powerful perspective shift that can alert traders and investors to fundamental shifts in markets which can only be seen relative to the reserve currency of the US Dollar.

By the way, this shift towards the US Dollar during the recent economic jitters is understandable and, it does affect the markets.

The US Dollar has soared in value to an exponential rate that will be unsustainable by it’s very nature.

USD

This flow of purchasing dollars is being driven by worldwide factors that have created instability or at least the perception of instability.
The smart money moves, and is moving, to the most secure or perceived secure locations.

By way of example, note how the German Stock Market (DAX) is reflecting the same world-wide trend:

Dax_1

The shift for this market started back in July and never looked back.

On the other side of the World, as represented by Australia, we see the same loss of value and shift towards the US Dollar from the All Ordinaries Index:

AllOrd

Clearly, significant sums are migrating from different nation’s stock markets and buying US Dollars for investment in dollar-denominated products.

This significant trend will have a monetary-system wide effect that will be hard to explain using the usual one-dimensional chart analysis.

The US DOLLAR is a powerful factor at work behind the scenes and one which we’ll examine further in the days ahead. – George

© 2014 Copyright George R Harrison – All Rights Reserved
george@money-tigers.com

Disclaimer: All articles and posts are a matter of opinion (drawn from over 44-years of market research & experience) and are provided for general information purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilize privately discovered methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisers.
From the website: http://www.WDGann-Lost-Secrets.com

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Bio: George R. Harrison’s background includes time as a Hedge Fund assistant manager; an intensely focused 44-year long period as a researcher of the Markets, a Master Market Analyst & Chartist; recognized by Gann-trained clients from around the world as a uniquely qualified, modern-day WD Gann expert, (having rediscovered and restored-to-print many ‘lost’ Gann techniques through his decades of research work) and creator of several revolutionary market analytical techniques and tools.

Mr. Harrison continues his market research & private client consultation and instructional work while living on the island of St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands.

SPECIAL: Mr. Harrison now offers limited, private one-on-one advanced instruction in a resort setting on St. Croix in the Virgin Islands.

George may be contacted by e-mail at: george@money-tigers.com

goldbar

Asia: Sand in the Gears of the Bull Market

Asia:
Sand in the Gears of the Bull Market

By: George R. Harrison

The Asian Stock Market scene has been dynamic and strong. At least until some sand got into the gear works a few months back and started to grind the bull markets to a halt.

The ‘canary in the coal mine’ was first spotted in the Malaysian Stock Index.

Malaysian1

Malaysia’s stock market has been the weakest of the 4 we’re looking at here and, as the chart shows, has fallen around 7% in the last 3-month’s time.

The Malaysian Stock Index decline also made it’s appearance known in both the Hong Kong and the Singapore Stock Indexes . . .

HongKong4

Near mid-September, the train ride upwards became derailed, hesitating and then started working it’s way further on the downtrending slope.

Singapore, the financial capital of the region, reacted and mirrored the shift at the very same time.

Singapore3

The main difference between Hong Kong and Singapore Stock Indices is that Singapore has weathered the shift much better, showing itself to be the stronger market of the two during this time period.

Of course both of these markets are huge compared to Malaysia.

No doubt that the continuing massive movement of funds to Singapore (leaving nations perceived as less safe and secure) has gone a long way towards keeping the index stronger, even after it’s initial falter.

However, all is not well in the region and there are plenty of ‘signs’ that indicate that a slowdown and trend change are in progress.

Besides Indonesia, (which has defied expectations by continuing it’s rocket ride upwards in spite of oil’s crashing prices) Thailand has been a shining light reminder of the good old days of uncomplicated bull market price movements.

It has enjoyed a beautiful, strong upwards, non-volatile bull market move all this year (until recently).

Alas, that sand-in-the-gearworks I wrote of earlier has begun to make itself visible in the Thai market now. When you look at the chart, you can almost hear the grinding and slowing down of the ‘gears’ to this index. If you listen closely enough, you may find that they have stopped and are starting to reverse a little.

Thai2

The Thai stock index has also been strong and managed to hold off the beginnings of faltering for an additional quarter past when the initial shifts were beginning to show in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore.

However, it may be time for this market to ‘catch up’ and the last few days seem to indicate that that’s what’s happening.

SETI_3

Behind all of these market gyrations is the effect of the US DOLLAR and the weakening of so many currencies against it. We’ll examine this more closely in the next article as space is limited here. – George

© 2014 Copyright George R Harrison – All Rights Reserved
george@money-tigers.com

Disclaimer: All articles and posts are a matter of opinion (drawn from over 44-years of market research & experience) and are provided for general information purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilize privately discovered methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisers.
—————————————————————————————-
Bio: George R. Harrison’s background includes time as a Hedge Fund assistant manager; an intensely focused 44-year long period as a researcher of the Markets, a Master Market Analyst & Chartist.

George has been recognized by Gann-trained clients from around the world as a uniquely qualified, modern-day WD Gann expert, (having rediscovered and restored-to-print many ‘lost’ Gann techniques through his decades of research work) and creator of several revolutionary market analytical techniques and tools.

Mr. Harrison continues his market research & private client consultation and instructional work while living on the island of St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands.

Current market comments and archived articles may also be found on his website at www.wdgann-lost-secrets.com.

George may be contacted by e-mail at: george@money-tigers.com

goldbar

The Weight of Time as Trend

The Weight of Time as Trend

By George R. Harrison

weightWe’ve all felt it. The ‘weight’ of time acting as Trends in the markets.

Trends that hold longer than expected and whose change in direction appears when we least expect or believe it.

Once time accumulates for an action and establishes a Trend, those trends take a lot of work to change.

It seems like the more time that passes after a task is done and energy has been spent, the harder it is to go back to revisit those tasks again.

It’s like getting motivated to mow the lawn after we’ve done it recently.

It’s easy to think about doing it again a day, 2 even 3-days after doing it, but, come a week or two later, and the ‘weight’ of time comes into the picture making the effort harder and harder to accomplish.

This is a natural function of Life AND Markets.

It takes an expenditure of energy to set things in motion and even more energy to alter or change that motion to another direction.

Markets too, once they’ve obtained the energy and motion (for a trend) tend to stay in that trend and energy flow.

An object (the Market) in motion (trending) tending to stay in Motion (in the same trend direction).

Let’s take a look at a popular market (Gold) to illustrate the point.

The chart below shows the still-continuing downward trend for Gold at present.

Gold prices have been in a declining trend for over 3-years now. Those 3-years have now accumulated a momentum of their own and ‘lent’ it to the market called ‘Gold’ and, that downtrend doesn’t want to alter it’s direction and is highly resistant to change at this point.

trend2

This principle is simply a law of Nature; one we shouldn’t fight. It takes a good deal of ‘energy’ or ‘money’ to alter a trend in motion.

The chart for GOLD above shows just such a trend in progress. In this case, Gold prices have been dropping for 3 years now.
trend2

This is a solid trend with the strong Weight of Time behind it.

It will take a great deal of energy to turn this market around. Much like it takes a great deal of time and distance to turn around an oil tanker once it’s in motion and decides to change course. Energy (money, in this case and a great deal of it) will be required to effect the change everyone has been talking about for the last 3 years while waiting for this trend to change.

A MAJOR TREND SHIFT IN GOLD?

NOT YET. But, we’re now seeing the earliest signs of some energy input into changing the trend from downwards to up again. In other words, a gradual shift towards an upwards trend has begun.

trend3

These are not at a 3-year level of trend momentum however.

The shorter downward trend periods of 6-months and 1-year have now been broken clearing the way to higher prices again.

But, these higher prices may be of short duration such as 3 to 6 months or less unless sufficient buying power comes into the market to lift prices above $1450/oz. within a month, or $1375/oz. in 6-months. Unless this happens we’re still stuck in a 3-Year downtrend that hasn’t quit yet.

A serious Bull market in Gold is not the way to bet until these price points are surpassed strongly.

In a deflationary world environment, rising prices for a commodity like Gold are pretty hard to justify or even hope for. However, ‘hope springs eternal’ in the minds of investors and traders.

I’ve written on this subject before from several different perspectives to illustrate the same fundamental laws.

When everyone has a ‘precious’ metal, it ceases to be ‘precious’ by definition. When practically everyone has something (like Gold or Silver) where is the demand going to come from to push prices higher? Anyone??

Instead of a trading plan built on wisps of hope (or hurricanes of hype), It’s far better to work within the natural cycles of trend momentum that markets and prices gravitate to in order to read the ‘signs’ that really matter.

What’s encouraged, in other words, is a Human approach to trading that works within the same rule base that the Markets must work within.

Something that gives the user a feeling of control and solid-ground to stand on because they KNOW that they’re using the very same laws that Nature uses to run the World.

There’s nothing as comforting as using analytical methods based on the Universe’s Billions of years of successful application of Natural Laws!

When we recognize that these laws of the Universe are the same laws that govern our lives and that we’re not, in any way, ‘outside’ this System, then we can voluntarily align ourselves with them and make better assessments of market conditions and timing for trading those markets.

Whether a king of manipulators or an everyday trader, we’re all playing in the same sandbox. The Sandbox (the Universe) frames and contains all our possible actions within it’s boundaries and no one can thwart it or escape the Rules of the Sandbox.

What about the massive market manipulation of our times? It turns out that this is nothing new historically and many have prospered during the many other times just like these.

Take comfort and look at it this way; At least the Laws of the Universe are Honest and Incorruptible in their equal application.

In fact, in today’s world, it’s now much safer (and more satisfying) to work within those Universal Rules in order to out-maneuver the man-made schemes and misinformation that are increasingly present in both the markets and their supporting media.

All change is difficult to both accept and act upon. Human Beings are often slow to respond, change their positions or their minds (that’s the Weight of Time coming into play). But, when the Master System that rules this Universe puts these changes of trend into effect, we have no choice but to both accept and act quickly and follow that new Trend. George

© 2014 Copyright George R Harrison – All Rights Reserved

george@money-tigers.com

Disclaimer: All articles and posts are a matter of opinion (drawn from over 44-years of market research & experience) and are provided for general information purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilize privately discovered methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisers.

From: WDGann-Lost-Secrets.com

goldbar

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The content on this site and articles are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All information on this site is given for educational purposes only.

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES “INVESTMENT ADVICE” NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, BINARY OPTIONS, OPTIONS, FOREX, BONDS OR FUTURES.

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U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures, Currency and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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