Deja vu.

Wait a minute, I think I’ve seen this movie before . . .

You know, the one where the People have been swindled, sold out by politicians controlled by evil bankers holding mortgages on the family farm. Yes, the one where, eventually, the People rise up, fight the forces of evil and win  in the end by booting out the political rascals and changing laws to restrain the corporate and banking outlaws.

Well, it’s not only a movie plot, it’s the very economic cycle that is part and parcel of our history.

We’ve passed this way before my friends.

Not us personally of course, (not yet anyways!), but our preceding generations.

About every 3 or usually 4 generations, this repeats like an old movie script updated for the latest release.

Corruption in government?

Shocking!

But, it’s nothing new.

Take a look at this old print from the last century when the villain of the time was the corporate-like Trusts who monopolized their industries and used their vast financial powers to (guess what?) buy influence in Congress.

Sounds like a familiar story but, with Bankers this time around! (You can click to enlarge the picture for clarity).

In short, our ancestors or predecessors in this country have confronted problems as huge in their day as we have before us now.

They regained control and took back control from those who took it away or abused their offices.

And, they’ve done it again and again throughout the country’s history.

Although we hear of the Great Depression of 1929, few realize that it was only one of a series of many depressions that have happened to the economy and the people even in this country’s short history.

By the way, some of those past depressions were much worse in their effects on the populace than the one in 1929 and the country survived them all and went on to greater prosperity again and again.

Nothing in Nature is allowed to swing too far. Even the depression or recession pendulum must swing back to optimism and prosperity again.

There are two sides to the coin of Nature and even the crooks, thieves and con men politicians can’t alter the odds of Mother Nature. It’s just good to keep the larger picture in mind during these times I think.

“This too shall pass” is a good rule no matter what times we’re living through.

It’s a process of cycles of depressions or recessions to prosperity to over exuberance leading to another depression or recession and so on. It’s called an economic cycle and they don’t teach much about it in schools these days.

They should.

It would give all of us a better feel for the times we’re living in and a much greater hope for the future.

Millions have already had their opportunity to experience these kinds of times throughout this country’s history.

They have come and gone from their place and time in history.

Now, it’s our turn. Life teaches lessons to all who choose to learn from the passage of time.  Consider tougher times as just a little ‘extra credit’ work in our course load.

Think about it. Wouldn’t it be better for us over all if we gathered some nuggets of wisdom on how to live better and happier than to stand around with the masses wringing our hands?

For now, and,  for this blog, I just wanted to let you know that I see all the economic news that ’s come and is coming as a passing phase and not all that different from those of generations before.

They made it through their times, learned their economic lessons, prospered and survived or we wouldn’t be here today. We’re living witnesses to the fact that good times follow bad.

And, by the way . . .

Our purpose in this blog is to discern what’s really happening ‘out there’ globally so we can act in alignment with events and not swim against the tide of events and markets.

Here’s another tidbit about History to consider: During all those previous recessions and depressions in all those previous generations, many prospered during those same times that most others just complained about.

Now, that’s the ride we want a ticket to!

That means to work with what we have in front of us now and the times we’re living in.

Sure, we can remember the lessons from mistakes of the past. But, let’s resolve to forget the emotions tied to them.

Remember the quotation from ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ by Charles Dickens? It describes how things can look when we don’t have perspective or positive goals for the future:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going directly to Heaven, we were all going the other way.”

–  Charles Dickens

We get to pick which of the opposites we want to embrace. In truth we’re rarely correct in our first impressions or opinions of the times we’re living in.

History can teach us much in this regard. It’s a reliable teacher of Human Nature throughout History and it’s cyclical swings to extremes and back again.

I rely upon History when I’m researching the markets too, sometimes going back 4oo or more years in charts to test results.Why?

Because a single Human lifespan is inadequate to make judgments on anything dealing with multiple generations, or long-term trends unless it’s aided by the History of other’s lives and their observations along the way.

Just a note of perspective.

Our best days lie ahead and Laughter is a better Guide to our real happiness and Nature . . .

I highly recommend you take a couple minutes to watch this video for a unique experience that requires no words to convey it’s message and meaning. Be patient for the first 1:41 seconds of setup. It’s worth the wait.

I’ve found it uplifting and mood altering in the most positive of ways without saying a single word! And, it says a lot about the human Spirit I think. Enjoy .  . .

Have a great week ahead. – George

Tags: 1929 Depression, depression, Depressions, Good Times, Laughter, optimism, Recession, The Best of times

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Here’s one that seems interesting.

It seems that the really big shot bankers from the central banks of Europe and Asia are meeting secretly in Australia at an undisclosed location this weekend.

It’s suspected that the recent decline in Stocks and the shaky economic news from Greece, Portugal and Spain have prompted this secret get-together.

The real reasons and the news-behind-the-news have yet to surface to the public’s view as yet, but, we can expect something to come out of this.

Fortunately, as I work off my own indicators and pass those readings along to the Money Tiger Group members, none of us need to wait to be told that stocks are declining or that the Euro is going down.

We already were made aware of those and other true states of the market some time ago.Click this link to watch a short video report about this secret meeting in Sydney, Australia: \’There is a meeting here tonight\”

Tags: Banks, Central Bankers, Greece, Portugal, Secret Banker's Meeting, Spain

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Hope your week went well and that you adapt well to change because there’s been a lot of changes starting to show in the worldwide markets and trends.

This has been an excellent week in which to confirm the early rumblings I mentioned in earlier blogs.

Like the one warning about something weakening in the Asian Markets given back in December.

Well, by this week, I guess even the skeptics must be feeling a little uneasy about the Asian bailout option. You can just feel the hope of Asia saving the world economies fading away with each passing news day can’t you?

The Asian Stock markets are just the tip of a global iceberg of overbought stocks and indexes. Actually, iceberg is a good metaphor as we’re definitely seeing signs of cooling taking place after a heatwave of upward price momentum in many markets including stocks.

Here’s what I see out there at present. First, the basics, always the basics.

Are we in an inflationary or deflationary state right now?

There’s been plenty of speculation on both sides.  I noted last year myself that we were still experiencing upward price movement in many basic commodities like oil, metals and other markets.

Well, thats finally changed in enough markets now to even affect the CRB commodities index.

The CRB Index  is a good guide to the price market for a variety of items consumers need and use.

Note the chart of the CRB.

The CRB Index is mostly USA oriented, but commodity prices affect imports and exports of goods and raw materials worldwide.

Carefully measured then, this index can give us early clues about the real economic conditions here and elsewhere in the world.

I mean the ‘real’ conditions. The ones that lie way beyond the political smoke that’s blowing like from a volcano from the governments of the world.

It sure looks to me that deflation (declining prices) is starting to be expressed over a broad array of markets and goods this time around.

Here’s the list as I see it presently:

There’s the decline in Gold prices.

Global Stock Market prices have started to tip over the edge.

Most major currencies that used to be strong are weakening (like the Euro and Australian Dollar) compared with the US Dollar which is strengthening.

Cocoa and Coffee which have inflated their prices greatly since late in 2008, have broken their upward trends and are heading lower. Hot chocolate, coffee and candy will eventually respond to these decreasing prices. Sweet!

Copper, which has been one of the worst of inflationary metals, has also broken it’s up trending price momentum. this is one of the powerful indicators of inflation or deflation in the economy.

Cotton, Corn, Soybeans. Important items all and also now declining in price at the wholesale end.

Heating Oil.

There’s another major wave of mortgage debt consolidation coming and peaking in July for 2010 with another surge next year. So, there will be more crises ahead.

Crisis is normal in the process of Life and Economies. It’s the poor responses to these events that has posed the greater threat and the greater thief to prosperity these last 2 years.

If prices keep trending downward on consumer items and necessities, it will take some of the pressure off from the populace and give all of us some pause and time to reflect on our best course of action going forward.

Trading is one way to respond. There are always excellent opportunities in discovering trends early, climbing on board and prospering while others are wringing their hands.

There are cautions when contemplating trading. Read my disclaimer and risk disclosure pages to educate yourself in this regard.

All opportunities entail risk. That’s how it works.

Have a great weekend. We’ll be discussing some Forex charts of interest and Gold in the upcoming blogs.

- George

Tags: Australian Dollar, Cocoa, Coffee, copper, Declining Euro, Global Stock Markets, Heating Oil, Stock Indexes, Stock Market, W.D. Gann, Weakening Australian Dollar

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Hello all.

Seems like a good day to look back and reflect a little.

I also thought it was time to do a little chest thumping; bragging about our recent market calls.

I mean, if I don’t call attention to them, who will?

Seriously though, it’s always useful to see what trends we’ve called a while back. It’s even more interesting when they are seriously becoming noticeable to the public as these are.

Like a few weeks back when we warned of a seriously and fast weakening NASDAQ and also about the shift in the EURO within the Forex to a serious downtrend as well.

Here’s what I’m talking about briefly and visually:

The EURO trend has accelerated it’s downtrend just as we warned of  last year.

The chart to the left shows the drop in value relative to the US DOLLAR in just the last two months alone.

Our call for the EURO was correct then, now and the trend is continuing.

We even jumped all competition (although, I have to admit that we really don’t have any with the W.D. Gann techniques and others we use here) by extending our trend forecast to the Asian Markets as well.

Way back on December 21st when we were the first to say that a crumbling in the Asian Stock Markets (particularly the Chinese markets) was beginning to show itself, we were all alone in that call I can tell you!

At that time, the only news in the media was about’ China the Strong’, the ‘Invincible’, “the economy that would save us all from ourselves”, etc..).

Meanwhile, we were warning about what was beginning to show in the market pricing and forewarned our readers and members to pay close attention to the implications of what was happening.

We use our technical methods to peer deep into the market itself and let it tell us what’s really going on instead of trying to discern that from the headlines.

And then there is the NASDAQ (and other)  Stock Market Indexes:

This one has fallen sharply as have the DJIA and S&P 500.

While most cannot discern the real trend at work here and are trusting their television news reports or newspapers to tell them if there is any danger . . .

Here’s the real news flash:

They won’t tell you. They never have. They never do. They never can. They never will.

It’s pure economics.

They’re just reporters working for newspapers that are owned by corporations traded on the very exchanges they’re reporting on.

How do you think that works?

Their employers (even if they did know, which I doubt sometimes), would never allow news stories to be published or broadcast that would panic the markets and push their shares of stocks and options to downward.

They’d lose millions, even Billions of dollars for their fellow board members, themselves and the shareholder’s of their corporation who would promptly fire them without mercy or benefits.

And, so it goes.  Well, that review not only felt good, it also brought us up to date on those markets again.

I’ll continue to monitor them and others while looking for the next markets of interest to track.

Have a great week. - George

Tags: asset protection, Declining Euro, forex, Hang Seng Index, Nasdaq 100, Stock Market, us dollar, W.D. Gann, weakening euro

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Hello to all our members and visitors.  Welcome.

Today seemed like a good day to step back and look at how well or ill-informed we are as a nation.

Television is a good place to start.  Do you think that we’re watching enough television?Haven’t heard that question asked in, well, ever!

Is there any chance that there could there be a TV viewing deficiency in our country? Dittos here too.

We can lay that question to rest immediately, as the chart below shows:

If  education was measured by media exposure alone, then that should be reflected by the amount of television we’re exposed to vs. IQ  or SAT scores.

Well, as we know, SAT scores have dropped so badly over the decades that they’ve had to adjust the ranking process to disguise the fact that educational institutions have largely failed to educate the populace.

In fact, although I don’t have the statistics, I’m sure you’re contacts with the public and employees in the public arena match mine and have convinced you as they have me that we’re actually more and more approximating the movie premise in the film “Idiocracy“.

It’s a comedy that I recommend you watch for pure entertainment, but, of course, it’s really about much more.

It’s more like the future we fear (and see) coming if we don’t take some action to change directions. The mere appearance of a movie addressing the concept of a declining intelligence overall could be a good sign that it’s coming to the surface to be noticed.

Movies can do that sometimes and the best reflections of Society and Politics often come from the court jester and ‘fool’ (in this case comedy film).

Of course,  tv can educate if it’s given the right material programming, but, there’s too much competition and corporate sponsorship of junk programs and brainless shows instead. I mean, where is the real news today?

It’s on the internet!

The internet is a far better source of behind the scenes news reporting today. That’s why the major newspapers are going down in readership by such huge percentages each year now. The People know that they’re not getting the real info from the mainstream media anymore. They’ve been bought and paid for by corporate interests who are only interested in the bottom line.

Take this blog for instance. Do you think the television networks are going to tell you how many people they have addicted to their broadcasts and for how long each day?

Not likely. That’s why that chart above and the information on it came from internet news sources, not mainstream media.

I love that aspect of the internet.  Presenting the truly different from a new perspective is a real kick to me and I hope it’s something you like to read here from time to time as well (along with our unconventional market reports and charts).  - George

Tags: W.D. Gann

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The old adage “When interest rates are high, stocks will die. But, when interest rates are low, stocks will grow.” has held true enough over the decades to be a good gauge of the economy.

I’ve included a longer term chart of US BONDS to show this point.

Had anyone used the Excalibur trend and trading method, they would have detected this trend years ago.

Knowing the connection between interest rates and the stock market means one would not have been surprised by the recent ‘mysterious’ rise in stock prices that we’ve been experiencing.

Recently, there has been a shift in the downward momentum of interest rates which could possibly indicate a potential lifting in rates.

This is already starting to show up with some central banks overseas raising rates.

Money is a very competitive product and governments have to compete with each other to attract international funds.

The strength of the currency attracting the investment cash is also a factor.

As we can see in the next chart of the US Dollar Index, there is considerable momentum now to the upside for the US Dollar.

This means that with rising interest rates or at least stable interest rates that the US Dollar is a good place to park one’s cash as that is the place where it will grow in value.

Growing value currencies will continue to attract foreign money, even if interest rates aren’t rising at present.

Could this attraction also lead those investors out of the stock market and into the US Dollar instead?

The name of the game (in order of priority) is survival of assets, not income.

But, if you can find both, then it’s a double-win for the investor.

Now, let’s look at the stock market.

Could the stock market be showing signs that the  “stocks will die” part of that old saying I mentioned at the beginning is still operative?

First off, let’s remember that interest rates are not high by any means of historical perspective.

However, that being said, there has been a constant loss of momentum with each rising top in the Nasdaq 100 stock arena.

I believe we’re starting to  see a downtrend beginning in this market based on trends going back over many months.

A declining stock market would shift money into the US Dollar and out of the stock markets as assets seek new safer ground.

This kind of movement on a large enough scale could lead to some pretty violent downward moves in stock prices.

But, that’s not the most important thing here.

It’s the fact that we’ve already detected this shift that’s important. That tells us that the big money is way ahead of the mass investing curve like usual, but, we’re aware of the shift.

Are we seeing the very early stages of a similar action in the stock market too?

Let’s watch, but, be forewarned that something has been shifting over the last several months.

Less buying has been taking place and earlier selling from those who hold most of the inventory of stocks.

This seems to be indicated by the Excalibur interpretation of events and, speaking for myself only, I’ll pay attention to that interpretation for now. - George

Tags: Interest Rates, Nasdaq 100, Stock Indexes, Stock Market, W.D. Gann

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Hello everyone and thanks for your continued support.

This week I’m excited to be calling attention to another in the growing list of indicators that something odious is about the hit the fan nationwide and, perhaps in other nations around the world as well.

I think the generations now living are starting to awaken to the brazen robbery that has taken place and is threatening to grow ever larger if they don’t begin to act.

You can now see the beginning sparks of a fire which will eventually consume these rascals. We see it in the endless media stories of bankers greed and bonus payoffs. We are now seeing it even in our newspaper cartoons:

I have no charts to plot these economic rumblings, but, I’ve seen enough events in enough diverse places to ferret out a new and growing trend which will not be ignored for long!

I report them here because it has great bearing on the economy and the markets I believe.

The politicians are trying to ignore it.

The talking heads and experts in the media refuse to acknowledge it and government is too ponderous, greedy and self-concerned to care.

But, the People do care. And, they’re beginning to stir.

A new revolution has started to smolder right here in the USA.

Prior to this point, many had wondered if there was any spark left in the American people. Why were there no people in the street massing towards the white house and congress?

Had people just stopped caring or had they perhaps stopped believing in government and their interests being properly represented by those in government.

Some speculated that the will for freedom had vanished long ago and been replaced by consumerism and greed.

I believe that to be wrong and, these last few weeks have pointed out the new direction that will be gaining momentum from this time forward until some sense of justice and control has been restored to the institutions of society and government.

Starting with the ‘audit the Fed’ moves to open up the secrets of the central bank that is run by bankers who are even more corrupt than their better known brethren like Goldman Sachs, etc., it is now spreading to unpredictable election results in States where a single party has had a ‘lock’ on election results for decades.

There’s a strong and growing call for the People to take action. There appear to be now some clear means of doing just that.

People are now converging on the option of voting to ‘throw the bums out’. It isn’t a vote of confidence in another party, it’s a vote of no confidence in either party!

They’re acting to end incumbency and try to limit the corruption by limiting their time in office. And, that’s not the only area either.

In Iceland, the People of the entire Nation are preparing to make the international bankers eat dirt instead of steak by not repaying the crooked loans that were foisted upon them without their consent.

And, in the US, one of the most recent and one which we should embrace in my opinion, is returning back to our local banking community and taking our money out of the ‘too big to fail’ corrupt bail-out bank crowd.

Here’s a video that sums it up nicely:

To learn more about a successful model of how every state can start to get out of it’s budget deficit problems, read about the only state that has done so since 1919: The Bank of North Dakota. This bank, owned by the State of North Dakota, has produced a billion dollar surplus to the state by making loans that support the People of the state instead of shipping money and jobs out to the East Coast or overseas.

It’s been a well-kept secret and you can learn more about it here.

Hope you enjoyed the video and give the idea some thought.  – George

Tags: Banking, Banks, Moving Banks, W.D. Gann

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Hello investors, traders and the curious.

I sincerely hope your week was a good one and that it brought with it much opportunity. There certainly was that out there.

But, no matter if you missed it.

There’s always more opportunity than time and resources permit to take full advantage of it seems.

Let’s take a look at one of the developing strong currency movements in forex.

The Euro.

We can clearly see using our Excalibur approach that a long-term (almost a year in length) trend has been broken in the Euro:

From a cash perspective, it would seem that another currency of rising value would be in order.

If the up trend lasted about a year, you certainly can expect this new down trend to be one that can last at least several months, if not all year.

Europe, and therefore the Euro, have problems and they’re bigger than is generally known.

The U.K. is weak and getting weaker. Greece has been found guilty of cooking their financial books and these are just ‘cracks’ in the dike.

That kind of background information is just the back story to the chart’s indicator using the Excalibur approach.

What we’re tracking here is where the largest of institutional traders (Banks, Nations like China, etc.) are shifting their money. When these tigers make their aggressive moves, they turn into elephants stampeding. There’s a lot of momentum (trading dollar volume) behind them and they’re not going to stop on a dime in the currency markets and reverse directions.

If you look at the previous blog we sent out (below this one on this page), you’ll see that I showed an alternate strong currency whose trend continues to be strongly upward; The Australian Dollar. I thought you’d like to see the comparison, so, we are looking at a week currency market this week which is shaping up to be the Euro.

GOLD:

We’re taking a look at a longer-term chart of Gold below here:

When looked at with this perspective we can see that the longer-term up trend is still intact.

I’ve outlined with a red oval where there will be selling pressure developing on the next upswing in prices.

The price area outlined in red is only valid for the next few weeks or so.

If you have a shorter-term interest in this market, you’ll have to update the Excalibur line more frequently and move to shorter-term charts.

Excalibur approach is valid at every time frame. It just depends on your trading preferences.

Public demand for Gold is great. Government demand is also great.

But, there’s a very disturbing set of news bits that are not being reported in mainstream press, that, if they are true, will truly upset the Gold applecart in a way that seems to me will drive prices much, much higher.

“All the Gold in Fort Knox”??

That used to be a saying when I was growing up.

That phrase was used to refer to an ultimate repository of wealth, as in the phrase, “I wouldn’t trade my Family with theirs “for all the gold in Fort Knox”.

Well, my friends, get ready.

I now refer you to this article on an absolutely huge amount of counterfeit gold which the Chinese government received from the U.S. via transfer through London.

There were reported to be between 5,600 to 5,700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each that were not the ‘real thing’ in this huge transaction from the US to China.

Take a moment and do the calculations on those numbers but, be sure to have a huge number of digits in your calculator!

My figures show that the Chinese would have been taken for roughly around $2 Billion at $900/oz on 5600 bars and that sure isn’t petty theft! And, when the gold originated from our depository in Fort Knox and, so, essentially comes from a sovereign government like the U.S., that’s supposed to be the standard-bearer and defender of the US Dollar, that poses even greater questions about the integrity of the international gold supply.

Is this one of the reasons for the president’s recent trip to China? They’ll never tell.

If this information is true, this would be a Global heist that even Goldman-Sachs could admire in audacity and cunning.

And, the implications and history this brings into perspective could cause you a restless sleep tonight once you read more and give it some thought.

This story goes back to, at least, 2004 according to the article I’ve referencing. I wonder if, in fact, it goes back even further back, say, to around 2001?

On 9/11/01 another gold depository located below the twin towers in New York City was violently violated.

In addition, the Comex Gold exchange was  destroyed and, undoubtedly, records went missing in the destruction and chaos that ensured.

Massive amounts of Gold were ‘lost’ temporarily and then found again (or were they ’salted’ with counterfeit bars at that convenient time of crisis and fear?) . This new information makes one suspicious.

One thing our times are teaching us is that there really is no limit to greed and amount of theft some are willing to dare in pursuit of financial and political power.

But, that’s another story and the news in this article is certainly enough all by itself.

I cannot go into it in this blog, so, set aside 10 minutes and go to the article, but, be sure to watch your blood pressure!

It’s all food for thought. Thanks for visiting. - George

Tags: Australian Dollar, counterfeit gold, Fort Knox, The Gold Market

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There’s still plenty of chaos and questions out there in the investment world this New Year.

But, what I find myself thinking about is protecting the basic underlying value of my assets.

Where can I be, at least somewhat, protected from the surprises that surely await this coming year?

While I’ve pointed out many short-term opportunities and swings in intra-day and daily trends on this blog, what I’m going to write about (in this posting) will be asset protection, and not short-term investment opportunities, but trends that last up to a year and more.

In the past, I’ve pointed to the Australian Dollar as one of those “safe havens”  in today’s world of investment.

The Monthly Chart of the Australian Dollar vs. the US Dollar shows just why that is.

Look at this long-term up trend (follow the green-arrowed line)!

This isn’t a an individual stock, a stock market, commodity or a day trading opportunity that will be gone in an hour.

The Australian Dollar represents a nation and a resource rich nation in a day and age when there is an increasingly incredible demand for more and more basic resources.

The fact that one of those Australian resources is Gold is still another positive factor.

But, even pushing that to the side for the moment, where else could you have experienced essentially 3% growth per month on your MONEY by still having CASH in your control sitting in a bank account at that??

Think about it for a second.

If you converted cash into Australian Dollars and had those Australian Dollars in an Australian Dollar account in a bank, not only would you have made around 36% gains in the VALUE of your CASH, but, you would have also gained interest on the cash account as well.

And, that interest would have also been paid to you in a rising value currency (Australian Dollars), not a depreciating one (US Dollar).

Yes, there have been higher appreciating markets out there. But, there’s an entirely different feel to CASH, I’m sure you’ll agree.

This isn’t Gold, which has become an investment (an therefore a manipulated) vehicle.

This is CASH- Where every investment eventually comes back to rest up for the next foray out into the chaotic money-world.

You could have even made 36% on your Australian Dollars if they had been socked into pillow-case, tied up and tossed into the attic for a year.

Well, you see the point.

One doesn’t always have to be ‘busy’ investing to increase one’s net worth. A few carefully chosen long-term trends in non-leveraged areas can serve you well.

Will the Australian Dollar continue it’s performance for this next year?

W.D. Gann, probably the Greatest Trader of the 20th Century, used to say that there is a time and trend for every market and that, when that time is up, the trend would have to shift directions.

The chart above shows that the long-term trend is still intact and, for that to change directions will take quite a shift in momentum. But, of course, some day even this fine market trend will end.

But, you can rest assured that there will be some other cash-equivalent area of growth that can protect one’s asset value.

There always is.  There always will be.

Smart money always has a place of refuge, so, Let’s just follow the smart money!

We’ll keep putting the ‘Excalibur’ tool to work to find just where that is during the year. -George

Tags: asset protection, Australian Dollar, Demise of the Dollar, Strong Australian Dollar, W.D. Gann

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Hello 2010 and hello to our friends in the Money Tigers Group.

Glad to greet all of our readers again on this new side of the yearly calendar.

We start this year with a trend that promises to last for several months minimum.

I’m talking about the EUR/USD forex pair.

The Euro is definitely on our trend line radar and the direction is down.

The Euro is acting weaker than other currencies at present and may be the leader of the pack going out of the gate early.

This is particularly important if you are implementing a cash equivalent strategy.

In short, that strategy encourages cash ownership of commodities or having the ability to completely fund the total valuation of a futures contract.

In the case of currencies, this approach would consist of parking cash itself in a strong currency account so that one can take advantage of interest paid in a strong, rising currency and benefit from increased valuation of the cash deposit as well.

A weakening Euro means that Euros should be converted into a stronger currency.

At present, those currencies with the strongest performance for growth of value are the US DOLLAR and possibly the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR.

THE BRITISH POUND Vs. JAPANESE YEN:

The British Pound has lost a little of it’s downward momentum, but is still solidly locked into a down trend.

It would take some mighty upward action capable of breaching the red arrow trend line on the chart on the left before this strong decline could end and reverse directions.

A weakening Euro will certainly not help the British Pound. Quite the opposite would be the guess in fact.

We’ll comment on some alternative hard assets besides Gold in the next posting.

All the best, – George

Tags: British Pound, cash equivalent strategy, cash oswnership, Declining Euro, EUR/USD, euro, forex, Forex Currency Trading, GBP/JPY, GBP/JPY Trade, Japanese Yen, The Gold Market, US Dollar Strength, weakening euro

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Hello and welcome to all visitors and members of the Money Tigers Group!

It’s time to wind up another year of markets and to look forward to a new year of possibilities and opportunities.

That’s exactly the approach we’re going to take here.

Regardless of what the newspapers or television news says,

I see great opportunities ahead for 2010.

Not fear or worry.

I foresee readers and members with the calmness of knowing what trends are in progress in the global markets.

I also see the great profit opportunity that comes from being able to track market trends well and detect early changes in those trends.

I’ll be sharing some more private insights as I examine charts of various markets of interest to our readers and members.

So, party up, rest up and get ready for a great year ahead!!

All my best wishes for a Happy and Prosperous New Year to you and your Family. - George

Tags: The Gold Market

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Holiday ‘Hello’s’ to all you money tiger trackers out there.

I hope you’re getting ready to settle in for a long winter’s nap (Holiday-wise anyways).

Best wishes for this Holiday and for a prosperous and less confusing New Year.

Here’s a little update on the blog sent out yesterday.

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE STOCK INDEX:

In yesterday’s observations, I mentioned that the Hang Seng Index was tipping over the edge, but, that the Shanghai Composite Stock Index wasn’t at that point – YET.

Well, what a difference a day makes. It seems that overnight, as we suspected, the two markets came closer to alignment and agreement on a future direction for trend:

DOWN. Here’s the chart.

The downward movement of this market into alignment with the Hang Seng ups the odds heavily that there will be a break to the downside that is fast and noticeable.

Now that the world has turned to the Chinese markets and China in general to see if it is pointing the way to prosperity, the time is ripe for a disappointment to new investors.

What will appear as losses to us will be profit-taking by the true money-tigers of the East.

Money is leaving Gold, the Euro, Australian Dollar and other currencies and is going into the US Dollar for some reason we’re as yet unaware of.

Money needs to go somewhere to work and commodities (excepting the precious metals) and the US Dollar seem to be some of the prime destination spots for this flexible, global traveling cash.

GOLD: The Gold market hit our bottom resistance price area of $1080 which we set a week or so ago.

So, I would set the next step down in price before a rebound (and for a high probability bottom for this cycle) at between $1036.40-$1046.50 ( assuming Cash Gold’s high as $1226 NY Spot).

I favor the lower end of the range as likely.

We’ll just wait and see how the gold trend develops.

As the chart to the left shows, price trend continues in a decline phase on the 30-day Gold price charts.

This blog will have a few days off as we draw closer to the Holidays, but, I’ll be posting some thoughts before the New Year on other markets and trends. - George

P.S.:

A reminder: These posts are for educational purposes only concerning my own private methods of analysis and are not recommendations or advice to buy or sell  or to really do anything except to observe, along with me the rhythm of the big money tiger traders and institutions working at what they do best – swinging and manipulating market prices.

Tags: Australian Dollar, euro, Hang Seng Market Index, Shanghai Composite Index, The Gold Market, us dollar

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Here’s another interesting twist in the financial order.

We’re constantly exposed to negative headlines and stories about the US, UK and Western economies. About weakness, recession and woe. And, indeed there’s plenty of bad news to go around without a doubt.

But, I’m drawn to what I don’t read about but actually ’see’ taking place in the markets of the world.

Markets, whether bond, stock or commodities market, are where money is put to work.

For a while it was Real Estate that was over- heated to a red-hot lava bubble which naturally burst.

Now, many tell us that Asia is our savior and that that is where the future of investing will be.

That is probably true over the long-term, but, in the short-term investment money can be quickly gobbled up by naive new investors in the Asian markets.

Just as I noted that non-US currencies were starting to weaken (British Pound, Australian Dollar, Euro, etc.), now, I’m starting to ’see’ the beginnings of another surprise coming from the Hang Seng Market Index for Chinese stocks.

Observe the beginning of what could soon be big news this week or even overnight.

My interpretation is price that momentum is, for whatever fundamental reason, being choked and weakness, at least shorter term, is taking it’s place in the Hang Seng Market.

Granted the New Year celebrations are still to come in China, but, this is a bit early and seems to indicate that the incoming funds were coming from the Western side of the world and have slowed because of the Holidays here.

Will that be enough slowing to tip things over the edge? There has been some talk of US currency shortages in foreign countries and there no being enough spare dollars to continue buying US Treasuries at the same rate as before.

This slowdown in momentum may first show as a slip into sideways price action.

A sharp down-turn in Asia will likely spread throughout the region and if it starts now, may go largely unnoticed by traders in the West during this Holiday period. Too much partying can divert attentions.

Just when distractions are plentiful is a good time to prepare for surprises though.

Now, having said that, I need to point out that oddly, I presently don’t see this same weakness in the Shanghai Composite.

Yet.

Whether these two markets can diverge is an open question, but, it doesn’t seem likely on the surface.

We’ll just watch and see how this develops.

I could err on this by being too early but, it would align with the other currency surprises we mentioned and give us something to talk about as we begin the New Year.

Thanks for reading. - George

Tags: Australian Dollar, British Pound, British Pound, Declining Euro, euro, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Market Index, Stock Indexes, The Gold Market

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The month of December close to the Holidays is traditionally a time when specialists and floor traders and other major investors take some time off from the markets.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some interesting clues they’re leaving behind on the charts.

There are some intriguing changes in a few markets that I’ll be covering in the days ahead as I assemble a glance at the year ahead (or the next month or so to start).

One I’d like to leave you with today to ponder is the case of the seemingly perpetually bullish Australian Dollar.

Something significant is happening with the Australian Dollar.

A trend and market strategy of generating a ROI of over 3% per month in the cash Australian Dollar has just ended and shifted gears.

This may not be a short-term interruption either.

The second chart on the left shows how strong this change is.

The chart to the left is a weekly chart and also shows signs of weakening prices for the Australian Dollar.

The fundamentals we’ll never really know, but, there has been some talk in some circles of (hard to believe) a shortage of US Dollars in overseas economies causing upward valuation in the US Dollar and weakening non-US currencies at the same time.

The same thing is happening in the British Pound, the Swiss Franc and the Euro among others.

The Euro has really led the parade downward as the chart below testifies:

The non-US currencies are weakening as a group with the Euro leading and now, with the Australian Dollar (one of the strongest throughout this financial crisis) starting to slide too.

Inflation in commodity prices unfortunately continues with the exception of Gasoline and Crude Oil.

Gold, of course, recently has pulled back too, but, the inflationary pressure of the many other commodities has not been offset as yet.

We’ll continue to track the inflationary index and watch these new trends in currencies.

Have an enjoyable weekend. – George

Tags: Australian Dollar, British Pound, British Pound, Cash Gold, Crude Oil, Energy Group, Forex Currency Trading, Gasoline, Gold, The Gold Market, US Dollar Strength, Weakening Australian Dollar, weakening euro

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Plenty of action in the Gold markets. Just a quick update.

Prices have now broken below both of the trading ranges it has been working in these last weeks.

All bets are off now, and prices can drop. I expect prices to hold above $1080 until the end of this week’s trading.

Anything lower this week and we’ll be free-falling.

Prices could then fall to the $990 area where there is some stronger weekly buying support expected - George

Tags: Cash Gold, Gold Markets, The Gold Market

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GBP/JPY: Pound/Yen - An earlier (yesterday), offline analysis of the Pound/Yen chart showed that prices were in an overbought price zone.

Though this chart was a snapshot of earlier yesterday, you can see how having some insight into where the big money is reacting or acting on the market can be an advantage.

The selling area (shown in the red rectangle)  was no lie which was proven as prices dipped overnight past our uptrend support buy area and crossed our short-term (green) money tiger intention trend line.

This all indicated lower prices to come, which is exactly what has happened.

I draw your attention to the latest chart of the Pound/Yen trade below now.

The chart to the left shows 2 points (the red ovals) that the ‘Excalibur’ method indicated as places to go short this market.

Our Stairway method also indicated the second red oval from the left as a confirming signal.

These are all shorter-term price movement trends we’re tracking here.

But, the longer term outlook will tell us what’s really going on.

Let’s take a look at the long-term perspective using the same methods of analysis.

This chart where each bar represents a weeks movement, is telling.

While the Pound has been rising relative to the Yen for many months, it has shifted to a down trend that is accelerating (in my opinion based on my methods).

This means that they’ll be some dire news coming to account for what’s happening, but, don’t expect it to hit the mainstream media.

I’d expect that those with huge positions in the Pound and Yen will have to unload into willing hands. That’s the Money Tigers way of doing business.

That means feeding out some positive slanted opinions or articles until these money tigers are fully loaded and short the Pound, long the Yen.

It seems to me that the initial sharpness of the break this morning is the kind of speed we can expect in steps on the way down from here.

That’s the view and comments for this morning. - George

Tags: British Pound, British Pound, currency crosses, falling Pound, Forex Currency Trading, forex trade, GBP, GBP/JPY Trade, GBP/JPY Trade, Japanese Yen, Japanese Yen, JPY, The Gold Market

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GOLD: Gold prices held in the range we called in our earlier blog (between $1100-$1125) and have now lifted up to a higher sideways range of $1125-$1150.

Nothing too exciting here yet.

Watch for a break out to the upside out of the $1150 price area to confirm some real strength here.

Our overall outlook for gold price movement remains the same as our previous blog of

———————————————————————————————-

S&P500: Working it’s way out of it’s sideways channel but on a very close money tiger trend line at present.

Watch this closely. Any break below the green trend line will indicate to me that the short-term trend of the last 2 weeks is ending and that the market will head downwards.

Our first target on the downside would be about 1098 if prices do start  to slide.

If the S&P500 price uptrend holds, then our upside target for the money tigers selling off their inventories will be about 1118.

Tomorrow we’ll show Silver and GBP/JPY charts as well as any news that comes about in the two markets mentioned here tonight. - George

P.S.:

A reminder: These posts are for educational purposes only concerning my own private methods of analysis and are not recommendations or advice to buy or sell  or to really do anything except to observe, along with me the rhythm of the big money tiger traders and institutions working at what they do best – swinging and manipulating market prices.

Tags: Cash Gold, Declining Euro, The Gold Market

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Imagine my surprise.

Actually finding some good news on the inflation front.

Here’s a cash chart with what I’m writing about.

Here’s what I see using our ‘Excalibur’ and ‘Stairway’ approach to analyzing charts; a definite down-shifting in price rise momentum is taking place in the Crude Oil market.

I’ll post another chart view of this from the futures perspective next.

As you might know I’m a real believer in establishing only ‘cash equivalent’ type positions in the futures markets – (see the FAQ at the top of the page for more on this), but, it’s important to look at this or any market from several viewpoints’

My interpretation?

Big money is shifting gears, liquidating inventories and taking their profits from the recent run-up and going elsewhere with their cash.

You can’t have a shift in such a economically fundamental part of the money system without it affecting our secret inflation uptrend.

I refer to it as secret as the government denies inflation exists. Does it?

Didn’t the US government just cancel the ‘cost of living’ raises to the social security crowd because there wasn’t inflation? Confused?

Just go by the charts and indicators and not the commentary you read or hear out there.

You can judge whether a price line is going up or down.

Black isn’t White! No matter how many times someone tells you it is.

You can trust what you discern for yourself using Common Sense.

Well, here’s a chart showing many critical consumer prices combined into a index chart formerly known as the CRB Index or Inflation Index.

Sure looks like a steeply increasing inflation trend to me!

Well, all politics aside, the Good News here is that this inflation indicator index has now weakened enough to be resting on our ‘Excalibur’ money tiger line.

That means, in my opinion and that of the method, that Inflation is shifting gears and slowing down at last.

It’s slowing down at a rate greater than anytime in the last 9 months shown on the chart.

That is indeed very good news, especially if the green line is crossed going downward in trend.

With Crude Oil mentioned above as changing trend, there will be a slow-down in inflation expected as well.

Happy New Year! Here’s a good start to the year anyways. More later. - George

Tags: common sense, crude oil market, deflationary, Energy Group, Energy Markets, Excalibur, futures markets, Inflation, inflation front, inflation index, inflation trend, Light Crude Oil, money tigers, The Gold Market

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Just a short note to let you know that I’ll be including more indexes and currencies in future posts.

Also, I’ve just posted a FAQ page that will give members and non-members more information about our techniques and philosophy.

You can find the FAQ button just under the tiger header at the top of the site page.

I’ll also be showing longer-term trends in these markets, so, these should prove useful for weeks ahead for our readers and members.

Once again, please let me know if you want to see a particular market shown. Just drop me a line. – George

Tags: Blog Musings, The Gold Market

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Hello to our regular group and to all our new members.  Hope you all had a very enjoyable weekend.

Do you remember your last school reunion?

It felt a little like that to me as I had the pleasure of  renewing communications with some old friends from years ago over the weekend. It was really very nice to re-connect and update on lives and aspirations.

I’m still catching up on the e-mails.

These are market enthusiasts whom I respect and they’ve given me some ideas to pursue on this blog that will improve it’s appeal to all.

So, shortly, I’ll be expanding commentaries to longer-term trends in other markets as well gold (as some of our members have requested).

Now, let’s see what’s happening with the Gold markets.

Heavy short-term selling in Gold has been taking place in the $1120-$1125 area repeatedly which seems to me to indicate weakness.

As mentioned in last nights blog (posted below), selling in a strengthening market should be taking place at higher and higher prices.

We’ve shifted instead to a short-term sideways trading zone. These are notoriously difficult to trade but do offer some insights into the underlying weakness still in the gold market.

By the way, we hit the gold price trend change spot on with our prediction last evening of a shift in gold price trend taking place between 06:00-08:00 NY Time.

Here’s how it looked on the Gold line charts:

This was just a micro-trend swing point, but was part of an experimental application of something I’ve been working on from the W.D. GANN work I’ve been researching for the last 3 or 4 decades concerning time and price. I won’t be doing these daily, but, it appears that I could using this technique if I wished.

That’s all for now.  Need to get this blog out to you. I’ll update some more later on today. – George

Tags: Cash Gold, favorite markets, Line Chart Analysis, short-term selling in gold, The Gold Market

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Gold prices have started to pick up a little in a micro-trend that bears watching.

Just for experiment’s sake, I’ve listed the potential weak price areas for gold on the upside over the next 6 hours. You’ll find those areas shown in red circles on the chart below.

Gold needs to stay above the white arrow line as the minimum. The upside for price is not so limited. If prices surge significantly above the red circled price areas, I’d be inclined to believe that this uptrend is gathering some steam.

We’ll see. Until then, we have some definite price areas to guide our trend analysis in this chart:

Make sure that you’re looking at the short green squiggle at the left side of the chart.

That’s the present price area for gold as on this type of chart there will eventually be 3 day’s worth of lines painted on the screen.

This is a good place to mention something about the ‘Excalibur’ money tigers technique.

‘Excalibur’ creates a dynamic, up datable trend line on a chart. As prices reveal more and more about underlying buying and selling prices, one is able to draw a more and more accurate money tiger trend line on a given chart.

So, as you observe over time some of the chart examples on these posts, and you see some shift in trend line occur, that’s because new data has created it and up dated the chart to it’s most accurate portrayal of buying and selling strength for that time period.

I’ll usually mention this in the post and give the reasons for the update, but, in case I forget, I’m telling you here. O.K.?

This should be an interesting week for Gold prices and the gold market.

I’m going to look for some kind of turn in the gold market between 0600-0800 NY Time. Let’s see what happens in that time block.

Purely speculation on my part, but, based on something I’ve been working on.

By the way. I’m looking for some input from you as to what you’d like to see covered in this blog series besides the gold market and currencies.

Any of you have other markets you’re interested in that you’d like to see analyzed in a different manner than found everywhere else? Drop me an e-mail at george@money-tigers.com and I’ll see if I can help in some way to get what you’re looking for up here on the web.

We’ll talk a little later. Have a great week. - George

P.S.:

A reminder: These posts are for educational purposes only concerning my own private methods of analysis and are not recommendations or advice to buy or sell  or to really do anything except to observe, along with me the rhythm of the big money tiger traders and institutions working at what they do best – swinging and manipulating market prices.

Tags: Cash Gold, favorite markets, Line Chart Analysis, The Gold Market

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Happy Friday all.

This week’s action in Gold was just a stepping down process that has taken us to lower lows inch-by-inch.

As Gold was not able to break above our $1150 upside selling area, it weakened even more and made a new lower low for this pullback.

Caution is called for at this point.

Prices could still weaken further, but, the real test will be on Sunday evening to Tuesday I think.

If  gold prices rapidly break down below USD $1100, but stay above $1070 and then, bounce back upwards strongly, we’ll probably hold and go back up from these levels.

If, however, gold prices break sharply during next week, then, according to our Money Tigers approach, we’ll be in for a significant downturn as this will signify that really big money is shifting in the gold market.

Here’s my concern: This reversal in gold price trend has not been in play very long time wise.

It takes time to establish trend.  And, as Gold has broken a 30-day money tiger trend line that was established over a period of a month or more, it seems that this new trend would have to run more than just a week or two just on the basis of it’s downward momentum.

We’ll see this week if the big money comes back into gold with a vengeance or not. If not, then, hang on for what will surely ’shock and awe’ a lot of small investors with plummeting gold prices.

The Euro as we predicted in our last blog (see below) is further confirming it’s new downtrend and weakened all day today until the close.

The US Dollar strengthens, the Euro weakens and Gold goes down in price in the midst of a financial crisis while the stock market of the most debt-ridden nation in the world (the US) continues to be strong.

Don’t even try to figure this one out, just have a great weekend. – George

P.S.:

A reminder: These posts are for educational purposes only concerning my own private methods of analysis and are not recommendations or advice to buy or sell  or to really do anything except to observe, along with me the rhythm of the big money tiger traders and institutions working at what they do best – swinging and manipulating market prices.

Tags: Cash Gold, Declining Euro, Forex Currency Trading, The Gold Market, US Dollar Strength

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The US Dollar is experiencing a boost relative to the Euro.

Probably due to ongoing concerns about Dubai debt held by European interests and rumors about Greece’s debt problems.

The 40-day chart shows the pattern clearly and our green money tigers line shows just when the big money started to change sides.

This could be the beginnings of a major trend, and, there are unexpected positive pieces of economic news coming out of the US with improved employment figures and decreased manufacturing inventories and increasing orders that seem to back it up.

Those are the fundamental ‘excuses’ that back up the actual actions in the markets however.

The real bottom line, in my opinion, is that money is coming back into the US Dollar and US Dollar-denominated assets in a big way.

Never underestimate the ability of news stories to obscure the real view of the economy.

But, I do know this:Money ‘talks’ and money ‘walks’.

And, where money walks (goes in the world economy), ‘talk’ will follow (news stories of the side effects of massive investments that have already been made).

This is why I like to analyze the charts. They speak clearly and much earlier.

The rest in the media is just gossip and public relations set-ups to promote vested self-interests.

The facts are that money is flowing into the US  Stock Market and those dollars of assets are now growing in value because of the increasing dollar exchange rate.

That’s a favorable combination for the wealthy. Especially when there are underlying and developing fears of more banking woes in Europe.

Money flees to the port of greatest safety and, right now, that appears to be the US.

It doesn’t seem logical, but, we’re just dealing with the data we see here and the money tiger strategy that they’ve used for centuries successfully.

We’ll keep our eyes on this along with Gold in the days and weeks ahead. – George

Tags: Cash Gold, US Dollar Strength

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The white circle on the chart left shows where selling overwhelmed buying in the gold market this evening.

Expect the gold lows of today to be tested shortly and probably taken out in the overnight markets.

The next chart in our series shows the longer-term strategy for the money tigers in my opinion and that line of support for gold prices has still not been taken out.

That is the trend over the last 6 months and is a stronger support level than any of the little ones we’ve been experiencing intraday this last week.

USD $1100/oz. is the number to be watching this week.

If gold prices breach that price support barrier, then, we’re looking at the USD $1000/oz. point as the next stopping point.

There’s no real news driving this market.

Just the usual rumors that are given the blame for this manipulative sell-offs by the big money interests.

That, of course, doesn’t mean that ’smart money’ isn’t flowing into some other markets at the same time profits are being taken out of Gold.

Ah, yes. Nothing like storing your newly minted profits from the Gold run-up in a currency that’s rising in value or even in certain stock markets for that matter.

We’ll look at the currencies tomorrow to see what’s hot there.

Until then, good evening from here. – George

Tags: Cash Gold, Gold, gold lows, gold prices, The Gold Market

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Happy Wednesday!

Gold prices had a brief excursion above our Money Tiger tracking line during the early morning hours as we suspected they would (see our previous posting), but,  slid back into their support area between USD $1100-$1125 and, are weak at present again.

In the process of their overnight price excursion gold has left me with an impression of ongoing  selling by the money tigers of the world.

Unless we see prices rising above USD $1150/oz. and staying above that price for over 10 hours, I’ll be reluctant to believe the big money is back in the Buying mode in the Gold market.

We’ll check back a little later to see how gold markets are behaving and looking for clues as to the next act in this global play.   - George

Tags: Gold Markets, gold prices, Money Tigers of the World, The Gold Market

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