A Forex Weekend Update:
March 14th, 2010
Ah, the end of another weekend has arrived.
We’re going to take a look at the Pound/Yen, the EURO, The Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar markets today from a different perspective than I think you’re used to.
It’s time to take a look at the Forex market (as promised) to see what the Money Tiger’s ROI (Return On Investment) intentions are presently in the currencies.
The Money Tigers (for our new visitors) are the big money interests, institutions and super-funds who literally ‘make’ a market in stocks, futures and forex currencies.
My theory is that, together, these market-makers and influencers make a concerted effort to extract specific gains from their market profit-centers.
These become their anticipated Rates of Return (ROI) for their investments in those markets.
These are the embedded rates of return that are built into the present trends in progress and, they vary according to the market. They can’t be seen normally as they’re underlying a market and not part of the price bars themselves.
The ‘insiders’, the Money Tigers as I refer to them, do their ‘banking’ through the markets where they can engineer much better rates of return for themselves than meets the casual eye.
If you find these ‘insider’ ROI intention numbers useful to you in your studies or trading research, please let me know and I’ll make a point of posting them periodically. They’re all part of the Excalibur process of analysis that I use for these markets.
The Pound/Yen (GBP/YEN): This is a market that has been in steep decline on a daily basis, but, now, has started to swing upward short-term.
The momentum of the long-term is still downward, but, one cannot fight the daily short-term trends on the intraday.
You could wait for a turning peak in price and a chance to rejoin the next slide downward, but, until then, prices are clearly in an upward push right now (note the green arrowed line-of-intention on the chart.
This is a strong uptrend, but, it's only a very short-term push at present.
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That’s the wrap-up for Sunday all.
Hope you found some food for thought in the above charts and comments.
I’ll be looking about in some of the other commodities and posting some insights into some new markets this coming week.
Until then, have a great week. - George
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Tags: forex
“Nothing Happens Until Somebody Sells Something.”
March 13th, 2010
There’s an old market saying that goes:
Nothing Happens Until Something Is Sold Holds For ALL Markets!
“Nothing happens until somebody sells something”.
This certainly holds in the markets, but, I wonder sometimes if most traders get lost in the details and forget this basic truism.
When we enter a trade somebody has “sold something” to us for sure.
But, who? And, why would they do this?
And, why were they willing to sell to us at this price?
There’s an excellent answer to these questions and, those answers lie at the core of how I analyze markets and trends.
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As the Latin saying goes: ‘Caveat Emptor’ – Let the Buyer Beware.
We’ll talk more about this concept and how to use it to better understand the markets as we go along.
I’ll be laying out from time-to-time some of the more famous markets and showing approximately where I believe (using Excalibur as my guide) the real ‘center-of-gravity’ for prices lies in them.
Have an enjoyable weekend all. - George
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A Little Talk About The U.K. & Greek Debt Situation
March 13th, 2010
Here’s a little update on the World Debt Crisis with the focus on the U.K. and Greece as discussed by Stacy Herbert and Max Keiser.
I usually refer to Max’s videos because he’s both knowledgeable AND has a humorous way of getting the point across.
If there’s one thing we need today, it’s to laugh as much as possible at the events going on while preparing to take our own actions to restore balance to our own finances and to society.
from maxkeiser.com
Our best defense is knowledge AND action on that knowledge in defense of our own circle of Family and Community.
I’ll continue to unveil what’s going on in the world markets on this site by revealing where the big Money Tigers are placing their money and intentions in the global markets.
In the next few days I’ll be posting about the Forex currencies, Gold and other markets of interest. Just as we discussed the Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar markets in our last blog entry below.
Until then, much Prosperity to you and yours - George
Tags: W.D. GannRelated posts
Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar. The Declining Cost of Comfort Foods: Expected or Unexpected?
March 11th, 2010
I haven’t posted as many blogs this past week and, instead, thought I’d explore a seldom examined aspect of following commodities and write more extensively on that subject.
Seasonal Trends.
Today’s topic is the declining cost of Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar on the world trading stage.
These aren’t the only declining markets out there, but, as many markets are rising at present, these are noteworthy because of their contrary behavior to the rest.
But, is that price behavior as significant as we hope it is?
We’ll look into this further in this blog.
Let’s get a visual clue as to what I’m talking about using our charts:
Coffee's declining prices add a little more comfort in every cup.
Then there is the chart for Cocoa:
Chocolate in every one of it's sweet forms should be declining in the near future.
I’m most pleased by this development as I’m a big fan of chocolate. Of course, it may take a while for retail prices to reflect the underlying real costs as there’s lots of inventory to go through first, but, eventually, we’ll all be having a great example of price deflation in handy, bit-sized pieces.
But, wait. What good is coffee or cocoa (chocolate) without a little sweetening in the mix?
So, that takes us to another basic commodity that is plummeting in price now and that’s Sugar.
Sweet! Sugar prices are dropping too.
Another declining market in a basic consumable, Sugar, bodes well for the general economy of homemakers.
Let’s take a look now at what we should expect from these commodities.
To do that, we need to know the Seasonal Tendencies of each of these markets averaged over many years time.
I’ll discuss those tendencies in the blog that follows which can be seen by the Members of the Money Tigers Group only.
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To continue with the summary of our member’s information:
The past, as we’re forced to say, does not equal the future and that certainly is the case with Seasonal Charts.
An unusual year can throw off your best-laid plans no matter how many years one has averaged price for a market.
So, my suggestion is to give Seasonal charts their proper weighting and don’t view them as a crystal ball.
Confirm what they say is ‘normal’ with today’s reality check which is today’s charts and a sound analysis of what those charts are telling you about the markets.
Do they confirm a ‘normal’ seasonal chart or are they telling you something else is happening this year?
Hope you’ve found some food for thought here.
Have a great weekend and stay tuned for additional shorter-term forex commentaries. – George
Tags: Cocoa, Cocoa, Coffee, Coffee, Seasonal Charts, Seasonal Charts, Sugar, Sugar, W.D. GannRelated posts
Curl Up, Relax and Listen
March 6th, 2010
It’s been an interesting week and the pace of events in the economy continues to accelerate.
That being the case, the weekends are a great time to relax a little bit and, at the same time pick up some background information to use in the upcoming week.
Pour yourself a cup of coffee or a cup of hot chocolate and click the audio player below to listen to the back and forth weekend conversations of Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert as they open up and take some time to discuss the news.
Turn up the volume.
Unbuckle your seatbelts.
You’re free to get up and move around the cabin and enjoy the next hour of audio insights of Max and Stacy.
The Coffee & Pastry Keiser report
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Trade Concepts: Forex-By-The-Hour, Not By-The-Minute
March 5th, 2010
This particular post is an observation that I’ve made and which you may find useful as well.
When it comes to intra-day trading of Forex currencies, there’s a lot of emphasis these days on really short-term time periods of action.
Using the bars on 15-minute charts, 10-minute charts, 5-minute charts to try to ferret out some profitable plays has been one very popular approach.
Trying to bounce around using different time frames is like performing a juggling act.
It’s a juggling act bouncing from one time frame to another in an attempt to grab a small piece of the normal swings in the market.
Possibly, it’s an exercise in trying to reduce the risk per trade.
The problem there is that because of the nature of the very short time periods, there will be more trades than ever and the low-risk per trade accumulates to become a greater loss than a single trade taken at a much more reasonable, longer-term time period.
I’ve seen some programs go down to the one-minute bars to make their programmed plays or apply their techniques.
There are some other short-comings of this kind of close action and short-term activity in the Forex markets.
One of the most important is that this level of time frame requires the constant attention of the trader or investor.
While this is exciting stuff at times, I don’t want to become the slave of the screen and the markets and I don’t think you do either.
Trading can become a wonderful supplement or even substitute for other occupations.
But, if we turn trading into just another ‘job’ that requires our constant presence in the ‘workplace’ ( or trading room), we will have sacrificed the very freedom we were looking for trading to supply.
At too short a time frame of charting, one is in danger of becoming a captive of the computer screen and trading platform.
Following markets too closely is too much like 'work'.
To escape that prospect, I’d like to propose that you consider stepping back to hourly observations and entry signals in the Forex markets.
Let’s take a quick glance at how hourly trends would have played out in one market over the last day.
While, I personally, prefer to stay with daily trending directions, let’s set that aside for now and look only at the view from the hourly level of timing.
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These are the kind of perceptive observations one can make if they step back a little from the volatile minute-by-minute action out there in the Forex markets.
We’ll discuss this some more with current examples in the days to come.
Until then, have a wonderful weekend away from the markets (yes, there is life outside the markets.:). - George
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The Economic Elite Vs. the People of the USA
March 4th, 2010
Having a bit of money doesn’t make one a member of the ‘Economic Elite’.
That group is composed of a very few individuals (less than several thousands) and they’ve been very, very busy these last few years.
Doing what you may ask?
Well, eliminating the middle-class around the world has been one of their achievements for one.
What they’ve done is to transform the structure of our money system in a way that has been largely invisible and unreported to the public.
Until now that is.
There’s a must-see video with David DeGraw on Max Keiser’s Keiser Report today with the author of the new book ‘The Economic Elite versus the People of the United States of America’
David’s interview starts at the 13 minute and 25 second mark on the video, so, be sure to wait for it or either go directly to it first if you’re in a hurry.
But, as usual, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert have plenty to say about current economic goings-on before the interview and I highly recommend watching all of the video.
As for David DeGraw’s interview and book . . .
There are important economic implications that are massive in the information given and it involves a basic transformation in the very infrastructure of our economic system.
If our economic and political infrastructure has changed and 99% of the public is unaware of the change, then, we may be awaiting or expecting results that used to come from economic downturns that just aren’t going to happen this time around.
It’s not being reported in the press for reasons we’ve mentioned before, but, you can hear about it on this video and be forewarned and take action. - George
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Tags: Economic Elite
Latest Buzz On Currencies & Hedge Funds
March 2nd, 2010
Say, did I hear that name ‘George Soros’ again?
Yes, indeed, I did.
I just speculated on him being involved in hammering the British Pound again just a few days back in our posting a little further down the page.
These guys are consistent in their actions and also in their PR deception campaigns as well.
Going back to my post of Feb. 10th, I showed this chart of where the big money was actually positioning themselves in the EURO.
I’d be inclined to believe based on my chart analysis that the idea to short the EURO was not a recent idea discussed at a hedge fund dinner at New York.
Somebody was selling heavily way back in December which makes me wonder how fresh is this news really?
It’s only now, when the news about going short reaches an institution like Bloomberg in the video above.
Oh, yes.
And, some ‘careless’ individual trader who, every trading day, disguises their actions from the public and fellow competitive traders ‘accidentally’ left their dinner talk agenda for a reporter to ‘find’ and report to the investing public.
You believe that don’t you??
I didn’t think so either. – George
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Banks: Kicking Them Where It Hurts Will Loosen Their Purse Strings!
March 2nd, 2010
Ah, it’s heartwarming when people start to act on their own behalf.
Especially when it comes to that bane of Humanity, the banks.
Yesterday’s blog about the special interest-free bank in Sweden brings me to another bold innovation from that fair land to the North.
What the Swedes are now doing will, I think, be a template for many nations around the world.
At least those governments not fully controlled by the banks.
In short, the Swedes were having the same problem that every other nation is experiencing with their banks.
Money funneled into the banks was being hoarded and not passed back into the local economy as loans as was intended.
Bankers just need some financial incentives to put cash back into circulation, that's all!
We’ve been experiencing this worldwide.
Banks find it more profitable (read less risky) to just hold onto their money and gain guaranteed profits from government bonds rather than making loans to small businesses.
Great for them but, it plays hell with the economies they’re part of.
It’s especially aggravating when they’re receiving billions in money from governments to use to make loans and they just take the money and keep it instead.
The Swedes had enough of this and were bold enough to take a step that no other country has been brave enough to do.
They’re levying a negative interest rate tax on deposits in the banks.
The more money they choose to keep in their vaults and not loan, the more they’re going to pay in taxes.
HELLO!?
That got the banker’s attention I’ll bet!!
That’s action at the only level which a bank understands: A direct threat to Money and Profits.
Nothing else will work with these guys.
History has shown that there is no ‘better nature’ to appeal to when it comes to banks or bankers.
So, in order to stimulate them into finally ‘doing the right thing’ one has to go after the only thing they worship and will give their very lives to protect: MONEY.
The word is that other countries including the U.K. are watching this action closely and thinking they may copy it if it shows signs of working.
Japan chose not to do this a decade ago when they had their financial crisis. It was the same scenario at that time.
Government supplied lots and lots of funds and their banks just hung onto the money and wouldn’t loan it out.
The result: a decade of stagnation of the economy.
It’s a hopeful sign that somebody in this world has chosen to try a different approach from the one’s that have proven not to work in the past.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this idea starts to spread around. It will be fought with all the money and power that banks can muster.
I noted that this little tidbit of golden information disappeared from the very brief mention of it that I ran across a few days back.
So, I decided that I’d better pass it along to some of you so that it has another chance of being seen and thought about.
Who knows?
One of you, our valued readers, just might be one of those ‘persons of influence’ that can help this see the light of day and get spread around.
I hope so. Until then, we’ll keep updating you with the good news out there. - George
Tags: Banking for the People, Banks, Hoarding Money, Local Banks, optimism, Taxing Bank DepositsRelated posts
Round 2 for the British Pound?
March 1st, 2010
It’s most unusual for me to post 3 blogs in a single day, but, I wanted to call attention to a potential weakness again in the British Pound.
Due to today’s situation and massive drop, we’re poised for another round it would seem.
Trend indicators and our underlying analysis indicates that weakness is again in play.
We’ll just quickly post this blog and see what develops.
Stops are close on this one.
Have an enjoyable evening. – George
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Interest-Free Loans . . . From a Bank?
March 1st, 2010
YES! It’s Real and It’s Working Today!
See How Things Can Be When People Decide To Take Back Their Power.
Part 2,3 and 4 can be found here.
When you take the time to watch this video sequence, you’ll learn how interest increases the price of everything by about 45%.
80% of the population never make enough to offset the cost of interest charges at regular banks.
10% make about as much as they pay in interest charges for everything and . . .
10% literally get all the interest from the other 90%!
That’s the very definition of Elitism and wealth concentration into the hands of the few at the top.
This is the cause of economic elitism and it’s built right into the interest-based money and debt system.
This is inequality that will eventually bring about an economic collapse just like what is happening today.
Of course, Islamic Banking has always worked without charging interest, but, now, we have an example of a bank in the Western World waking up to the evils of interest as well.
FINALLY!
Christianity used to espouse this same philosophy, perhaps it will awaken from it’s slumber to do the right thing again and oppose the interest based loan system.
Please take some minutes to watch the video about the JAK BANK in Sweden- a membership bank where no one member controls more than a single share and no interest-based loans are made.
This is a system that can benefit all at the local level for the local needs of it’s members.
It’s time for a human-need based system of money and banking and it’s already being done in Sweden. -George
Tags: 45% costs of interest, Banking for the People, Banks, elitism, interest-based economy, interest-free, interest-free banking, interest-free loans, interest-free loans, membership bank, Replacing the Banking SystemRelated posts
British Pound Avalanche
March 1st, 2010
Historic times have visited the British Pound Sterling.
Once again, this currency is under attack by powerful financial forces.
But, was this really as big a surprise as it will undoubtedly be presented as in the media today or could we have anticipated it earlier and taken advantage of it with Patience instead of panic?
Here’s the truth about it:
Today’s collapse was predictable on a trend basis many weeks ago.
The specific hour or day only remained to be displayed by the price action on the charts. But, the trend downward was inevitable and seen by those with the means to see the real underlying daily trend.
Alas, A Further Fall From Greatness
The daily chart foretold the direction quite some time back.
With short rallies to the upside, the trend downward was relentless in it’s march.
You don’t often see daily price moves like today’s.
But, the truth is, that the Pound’s value has been relentlessly chipped away at and those small incremental losses have added up to far more than today’s dramatic and noticeable short-term movement in price devaluation.
It happened fast.
Only trend following could have put you into today's action before it happened.
The chart below is a 15-min candlestick chart of the GBP/USD.
Obviously, this is an organized attack on the British Pound by hedge funds.
It has been done before by names like George Soros and his famous ‘break the Bank of England’ play years back.
I wouldn’t count him out of the play this time around either as he’s infamous for this sort of activity.
They still hate him in Southeast Asia after he destroyed their economies and currencies awhile back.
The short point here is that, without blood-ties or secret handshakes, you or I are not going to be privy to these type of dramatic events.
We have to use alternate means to ferret out the upcoming events that are planned for the markets.
We have one principle advantage in that regard and that is:
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But, whatever your market of interest, I’d suggest that we’re in for many more dramatic movements in price in every market globally.
But, Trend can be our friend and provide us with some sense of direction and purpose if we’re just willing to step back a little to see the ‘forest from the trees’.
Looks like a great start to the week for the markets. Stay tuned. – George
Tags: British Pound, Collapsing British Pound, GBP/USD, George SorosRelated posts
The EURO: When 2 + 2 No Longer Equals ‘4′
February 26th, 2010
It isn't personal, it's only TREND.
The Euro short trade we proposed vanished without a trace into the mists.
We were basically left with a break-even trade sequence.
We originally had an expectation of more selling of the EURO ahead, but, that rosy expectation very soon became the victim of a change in trend and, if I’ve learned one thing it’s this:
Trend is the Master of the Markets.
My read on this is simple.
The Market was right.
Sure, the trend was indicating downward and trend was correct (at the time the call was posted).
Internally, however, I think I was expecting something ‘more’ in the line of a drop in price than was in the cards.
There was no real reason to expect this based on my earlier information or the Excalibur method I use to evaluate the markets with.
In retrospect, the downward trend line in my previous blog was a shallow one which indicated shallow short-term selling of the EURO, not massive selling.
There’s something more in this feedback trend information though if we look closer. And, I admit it’s beginning to bother me a little.
I’m becoming aware that I’m suddenly hearing ‘news’ out there in media-land that’s a little too one-sided and ‘certain’ as to the future direction of the EURO to possibly be right.
I don’t mind being early on a call, but, I definitely don’t like a lot of company in the same play in the same direction.
That just isn’t how it works in the real-world.
The mass of investment psychology is wrong at critical moments.
So, what’s the news then?
There now appears to be information that there’s a huge tidal wave of short-selling of the EURO hanging over the market.
The result of all this ‘certain’ information about the market’s future direction?
Why, the EURO rises, of course!
I never tire of seeing this public relations market manipulation at work. It’s good, really, really good at influencing the public investor’s mind – in the wrong direction.
I mean, look at it. There’s such a good fundamental reason for the EURO to be weak right now.
It’s as simple as 2 + 2 = 4 .
Or, is it?
The flaw in this equation is that markets don’t comply with Fundamental information. The public isn’t given any that’s truly valuable.
The best information is kept hidden by market interests closest to the market. It isn’t shared with the public except to get the public into the opposite side of their trade.
The public is someone to ’sell to’ and ‘take profits from’ from the insider’s perspective.
The way that’s done is by feeding false information that appears logical and true to the media (which acts largely as an advertising arm for corporate interests) which can then stir interest by the public in taking on the opposite position to the one the big money tigers of the markets are actually holding.
BEWARE! George Soros is laughing at the Public again.
We saw this most recently with George Soros publicly declaring at the Davos conference in an ‘interview’ how Gold was the ultimate ‘bubble’ thereby implying that it was ready to burst.
It now turns out from separate sources that Soros was simultaneously BUYING Gold massively for himself.
This brings up two important points:
First: Multi-billionaires are not compelled to give interviews except by self-interest.
They already have all the attention, wine, women and song they can handle at any time night or day. The only thing they continue to crave and cannot satisfy is . . .
MORE WEALTH.
Look at the George Soros picture above and ask yourself:
“What makes a multi-Billionaire smile?”.
The appropriate answer should give you pause and cause to check your pockets and investment portfolios for ‘holes’ in them.
Secondly: Multi-billionaires need a huge ‘customer’ base to buy what they’re selling.
That ‘customer’ base is YOU!
What are they selling, you ask?
What are they talking about in the most glowing terms? That’s what they want YOU to buy.
If they are spreading fear about something about to happen (like Soros talking about Gold as the ‘ultimate’ bubble), then, that’s what they’re buying and they want you to sell it to them at panic fire-sale prices.
When are they selling?
Whenever their lips are moving.
Here’s the rule of good salesmanship:
ABC – Always Be Selling.
It’s a mantra with salesmen and these guys are just high scale versions of that breed.
Bottom line is that, with a technical approach to trading, we’re able to develop our own signals on whether a market is oversold or overbought.
We don’t count on others words or interviews to coach us into action and therefore, we don’t have to be wary of their real, underlying motivations.
We can just bypass that vulnerable stage of analysis completely.
With the EURO, I’ve noted that the Daily price moves have become much tighter and look like they’re about to reverse.
It hasn’t happened yet, but, we’ll be watching to see if there’s something afoot here and catch the switch early.
Have a relaxed weekend. – George
Related posts
New Euro Play
February 25th, 2010
Just a quick note to say that there is another good risk play in my opinion formed up in the Euro.
This is a good weak position in the Euro. click on the chart to enlarge for clarity.
In line with my earlier discussions in previous blogs, the longer-term trends are strongly downward in price.
Here is another point with a limited risk to the trade which is the short play of today.
I’ll post more later on about this trade as I monitor it.
Until then, stay tuned. – George
Tags: Euro forex trade, forex trading, intraday trades, W.D. Gann, weak euroRelated posts
Another Example of Waiting on Trend
February 24th, 2010
The last trade which we were posting about was the Euro which we’d chosen as an example of how longer-term trend can help us to wait and then position ourselves for good moves in a market.
There’s nothing special about the Euro in this regard.
I just had to pick some market and that was the one that was best positioned to make my point about picking one direction and being patient.
Ignoring the bait, we just choose to wait . . .
Our last posting was right on target as to timing.
The reversal to the upside occurred shortly after the posting of our chart as was expected.
The first blue circle on the left represents where we would have closed out our short position from about 1.3640, so, this would have been a profitable trade.
Once the trend reversal signal was given, one could have taken a long position on the short-term. But, that wasn’t the point I’ve been trying to make in these last examples, so, that signal was ignored for good reason.
The reason was simple: I was not looking for a long position in a weak currency.
Since the daily trend is solidly down, it would be illogical and probably unwise for me to take long signals intraday.
It would just be a matter of time (and probably not much time at that) before the Euro would reassert it’s downward movement.
Well, that’s exactly what happened. Faster than expected, but, expected.
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But, the Euro is only one market of many with great opportunities out there.
The S&P 500, another market of interest
The S&P 500:
The stock market as represented by the S&P 500 has begun to weaken in the last few days.
As this is a short-term trend phenomena, we won’t ascribe too much meaning here.
Yet.
If prices at the end of today are lower than yesterday’s lows, and, if prices close lower than yesterday’s lows, I will take notice of this market more seriously and would expect several day’s of lower swings ahead.
That’s it for now. Have a great day. – George
Related posts
Euro Fake Out Trade Update
February 22nd, 2010
Happy Monday to all.
This is an update of the Euro short trade proposed in our last blog of last evening.
It seems like a good time to update as it appears that this particular trade selection is about to end.
Or, it may not.
That’s really the point of researching and finding the true underlying trend in a market and staying with that trend until the market itself gives signs that it has changed it’s momentum and direction.
Yesterday’s chart when we entered our selection for our hypothetical Euro trade on the short side looked like this:
- This is yesterday’s market pick
The trend soon broke downward as expected from our signal.
We followed with a very shallow trendline indicator which was generated through our Excalibur process.
The shallowness of the line indicated that there was not a lot of selling pressure as yet so, we hold back from moving our stops lower too swiftly in order to give the market some room to swing back and forth in price.
Below is a more recent chart of the Euro.
- Click on charts to enlarge image
While our downtrend is still in operation, the momentum of the market has slowed and looks like it will shift again upward very soon.
Until it actually does though, we stay with our indicator and track it accordingly.
The results of this trade will also be positive profit-wise as our red arrowed line is also our stop to the trade and we’re way ahead of our entry price point (seen in the above chart as the blue circle).
Our results will be posted once the trade is over for members to view on this blog. – George
Ge
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Euro Fake Out Trade
February 21st, 2010
Hope you all had a great weekend.
And, now we’re back to the Euro to continue our study of intraday markets and the Euro in particular this evening.
After opening and going upward in price, I stepped back like I described last week to wait for opportunities to arise to go short this market.
You’d think by the way prices went upward after the rate hike on Friday that the European financial crisis was over.
That’s not the way I’m prepared to bet however.
I think this is a Euro fake-out trade designed to trap traders on the wrong side of an upcoming move.
Only an opinion, but, backed up a little by trend change detected at the 15-minute and 30-minute level.
I see and (more importantly) Excalibur (the trading approach we use to evaluate markets) sees another moment of potential weakness just starting.
Here's the 30 minute view as of the posting
The rest of this trade set-up description is just below but for Members only to view as this is not a public advisory service. You can become a member at no cost right now and read the rest of this post without delay.
[If you wonder what members are seeing that you aren't, just click on the 'Golden Ticket' over on the right margin and Join right now.
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Member Only access begins here:
What follows is for MONEY TIGER GROUP MEMBERS EYES ONLY: [Content protected for members only]One of the problems with writing this blog and posting it after working on the charts manually is that I’m a bit behind on the actual trading movement, but, I think it’s important to give you some working examples of how this market could be approached using our method of analysis.
It’s a built-in delay so, by the time this is posted, things may have progressed or been stopped out.
The risk is worth the potential in my opinion on this one, so, let’s see how it progresses throughout the next hours.]
I’ll post again later. – George
Tags: 15-minute forex charts, euro, Excalibur, fake-out trade, forex, forex charting, forex trades, forex trading, W.D. GannRelated posts
To Solve An Economic Problem . . .
February 18th, 2010
. . . First find out what the real news is.
Today’s state of affairs is that mainstream media refuses to give us enough information to be able to make a sound decision for ourselves.
It could be because they think we’re unable to handle the news or it could possibly be some form of “just ‘think positive’ and we’ll handle the details” political parenting of the voting populace.
It really doesn’t matter as the results are the same:
A profound ignorance about what’s really happening around us.
When I was growing up, (yes, long, long ago), my generation and I were told not to listen to any foreign sources of news outside of the ‘reliable’ US media like the NY Times, Washington Post, etc..
“You might be lied to” was the warning of the times.
How ironic that today’s only real news with content and truth comes either from outside of the country or via alternative internet sources instead of the mainstream media!
Do you want the real scoop on the economy or what levels of fraud have really taken place on Wall Street?
Don’t ask Washington. And, don’t look for it in the magazines or NY Times. Corporations have taken over all of these institutions and spin the news to match their agendas.
I personally have found some great sources of information and want to share one with you today:
Max Keiser and his informative (and entertaining) reports over RT television and other places.
Max is a former Wall Street insider who also designed and created online trading programs like the Hollywood Stock Exchange. He’s played the Wall Street Game and knows all the characters, institutions and their nefarious ways.
Stacy Herbert is an investigative journalist who scans the world for the real news and ties the pieces together to help bring focus on the BIG PICTURE in the economy.
Oh, and one more thing: Max is entertaining while being informative. Both Max and Stacy Herbert gather and uncover the hidden layers to the financial news gathered from all over the World.
Thought I’d start by having a couple of their latest clips here for you.
Hope you enjoy them. - George
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The EURO: ‘A Trend Is A Trend’
February 17th, 2010
Sometimes It Pays To Hang Back A While
For those who have been following our exercise with the EURO, I have the following chart to update the progress of this mornings pick.
The tally for the pip totals will be available to Members only a little further along in this blog.
[A further warning. This website does not function as an advisory service only as an educational site where we can discuss events and some of my personal opinions relative to my own approaches and methods to trading. Consult the more than ample disclaimers and risk management links on this website to update yourself on the risks of trading, etc..]
The theme of today’s sequence of hypothetical trades is pulling back from one time frame to another and waiting when unsure of the market’s behavior and, how that can pay off very well at times.
[If you wonder what members are seeing that you aren't, just click on the 'Golden Ticket' over on the right margin and Join right now.
There's no obligation and it's completely FREE.
That's right, FREE.]
Member Only access begins here:
What follows is for MONEY TIGER GROUP MEMBERS EYES ONLY: [Content protected for members only]
Hope you enjoyed the sample trades over the last week.
If you want to see more, drop me a line and let me know. And, please, if you could, tell some of your friends about this website so they can stop by too.
I enjoy the company.
Best of Success to you all. Have a wonderful and relaxing evening. – George
Tags: W.D. GannRelated posts
Updating Euro Pick
February 17th, 2010
Just a quick update on the Euro pick posted earlier this morning.
Here's the update as of 11:00 P.S.T.
We’re still in our hypothetical short position and are closing up the stop to follow very closely to the market.
Further comments will come later in the day.
Check back then.
Update of completed trade will be available to members only.
You can join now for FREE by clicking on the ‘Golden Ticket’ on the right margin of this page.
There’s no obligation to join and no begging for subscription fees or that sort of thing.
Good afternoon to all. - George
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Tags: euro
Longer Term Euro Replay
February 17th, 2010
Today’s update is For Members Only:
The blog that follows shows the latest entry in our series of hypothetical trade opportunities in the Euro.
This will be hidden from public view as we don’t want our readers to think this is an advisory service (it isn’t!), but, all readers and visitors can become members easily and at no cost by simply clicking on the ‘Golden Ticket’ to the right margin of the page. It’s FREE to join and there’s no obligation.
Members info begins here: [Content protected for members only]
I’ll be switching to more news-like subjects in upcoming blogs as these markets are not operating in a vacuum. There’s plenty of economic news out there, but, sorting it out to find something we can draw something positive from is the trick.
Focusing on what’s wrong doesn’t empower us or show us a plan to counter the news. I’m about finding solutions and unique and interesting perspectives on events and markets. - George
Tags: W.D. GannRelated posts
Euro Reset
February 16th, 2010
Results are nix on the last Euro entry as the market has reset to a higher time frame.
But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t something to be learned from the exercise.
While price did go lower as expected and then retraced as expected also, it just didn’t go down far enough or hold long enough to get on the plus side of the trade before an indication was given that intraday trend had strongly reversed.
When this happens, my personal approach is to step back and examine things looking at larger time scales.
But, there are other actions that could have been taken that were also correct.
I write more about this in the members only section below as food for thought. Join right now so you can read it.
Meanwhile, here’s the view of the scenery using 60-minute bars of the Euro instead of the 15-minute bars shown in our earlier blog:
Join as a Member to view more about this trade
I have another another chart you can view in the Members Only section that continues below and an in-depth examination about a largely ignored part of the trading formula:
Trading Philosophy vs. Trading Method
By the way, the results for that last Euro intraday short pick can be viewed by Members only below:
[If you wonder what members are seeing that you aren't, just click on the 'Golden Ticket' over on the right margin and Join right now.
There's no obligation and it's completely FREE.
That's right, FREE.]
Member Only access begins here:
What follows is for MONEY TIGER GROUP MEMBERS EYES ONLY: [Content protected for members only]
Thanks for reading. All the very Best Success. - George
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The Euro ‘Spring Effect’?
February 16th, 2010
Like a coiled spring facing downward in price, the Euro has been retracted and is ready to spring to new depths again.
In our continuing experimental intraday charting choices, we continue to track Euro opportunities from the short-side perspective.
As we mentioned in our last blogs, the daily trend for the Euro is still strongly down, so, that is where positions should be set up with the highest possibility for success.
It worked last week over our 3-day experimental and hypothetical run and was good for 340 pips of profit possibility.
Let’s see how things unfold now that a new upswing has upset most traders.
It happens to be just what we’re looking for; a break in the intraday uptrend with strong possibilities for the downside.
Let's see how this unfolds over the next hours.
I not seeking infallibility, just opportunity with minimal risk in the process.
Our approach usually finds the opportunity and lowers the risk by targeting special entry prices.
It’s up to the trader to supply sound money management and risk control (although that’s also integrated into the Excalibur program we use here).
Well, that’s enough for now.
Let’s just see how this turns out. Our hypothetical stops are just above the descending red arrow on the right of the chart.
which means our risks diminish with each passing hour should trend continue to favor our play.
I frankly expect some sort of back-up in price from here before another swing to the downside should it come. We may see it descend down to 1.3620 if a real speedy drop occurs on this swing.
Let’s track it and see. - George
Tags: euro, Euro vs. US Dollar, forex trade, intraday Forex trading, W.D. GannRelated posts
The EURO Slide: Not An Amusement Ride
February 12th, 2010
EURO Wind-up for the week:
The Down Slide Is Continuing.
The EURO Avalanche continued this week.
For those in cash positions, I’m sure you’ll be convinced by now (with the data we’ve been passing along to you for some time), that you’d be better off holding US DOLLARS than EUROS these days.
I began a little experiment this week in tracking intraday price movement using our approach.
I decided to use this weakness in the EURO to illustrate the wisdom of using Daily trend direction and applying it to taking only one-sided intraday trades in the same direction as the Daily trend.
It was also a good time to illustrate how we can also track intraday trends just fine (in fact, much better than fine!) for those who are inclined towards a more active investment style.
By the way, the wind-up results for that last Euro intraday short pick and, results for the week, can be viewed by Members only below:
[If you wonder what members are seeing that you aren't, just click on the 'Golden Ticket' over on the right margin and Join right now. There's no obligation and it's completely FREE. That's right, FREE.]
Member Only access begins here: [Content protected for members only]
Tags: forex, Intraday Trading, The EURO, us dollar, W.D. GannRelated posts
How That Intraday Euro Trade Went (cont.)
February 12th, 2010
Today, this section of the blog will update some intraday information from the Euro chart on our earlier blog.
This is just a quick update for members on how that Euro chart on our previous post ended using our hypothetical Short entry at the blue oval price area.
This is the one that we posted originally and was current when we put it up.
Our predisposition to look for a downward moving trend(based on the daily trend) meant that we weren’t going to take long positions only short sales in this market.
The Excalibur method of analysis that we use will locate the trends in either direction, so, that’s not a limitation.
My choice was based on a larger daily trend because I was looking for strong momentum probabilities and they would be to the downside in this market at this time.
Let’s see how this worked out from this point forward to see if there was any continuing downward price movement.
We picked the right direction here . . .
When on the right side of price forces, it’s a delightful thing to behold.
As we suspected, the momentum was waiting on the downside and took prices down nicely.
When we’re not correct, then, risk management is there for that very purpose.
No one is right all the time or ever will be.
So, why beat yourself up for it?
Personalities and psychological blockages being what they are, they can manifest anytime, even if one had tomorrow’s headlines and prices right in front of them.
Believe it.
So, seeing that you don’t have tomorrow’s headlines in front of you, give yourself a little defensive edge by creating yourself a pre-planned exit when things don’t go as planned and a pre-planned exit when things go right too!
That simple step instructs your subconscious Self that you’re allowed to make mistakes and that mistakes are part of your trading plan and, not a surprise that just comes along to wallop you out of the blue.
By the way a ‘finish line’ is most important to a trade.
That ‘finish line’ is where the profit-seeking race ends for you, not everyone else.
It’s where your goals are met.
Here’s what the ‘finish line’ looked like on yesterday’s short pick and additional selected points of entry and exit according to our approach applied to this intraday market.
Only Members can read this next section as we are not a public advisory service.
You can join our Private Money Tigers Group easily.
Just click on the ‘Golden Ticket’ with the key on the right-hand side margin.
It’s FREE to join and, when you do, you’ll be able to read what’s right below this sentence without even logging in (the computer will remember your password).
Non-members, however, will not see the completed chart for yesterday and currently that appears directly below for members to view.
For all our visitors, have a great weekend. – George
For all our Money Tiger Group Members: Your Private access begins here: [Content protected for members only]
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